A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects

Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas; Saad H.S. Al-Jibouri; Johannes I.M. Halman

A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects

Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas, Saad H.S. Al-Jibouri, Johannes I.M. Halman

Faculty of Engineering Technology

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

Although risk control is a key step in risk management of construction projects, very often risk measures used are based merely on personal experience and engineering judgement rather than analysis of comprehensive information relating to a specific risk. This paper deals with an approach to provide better information to derive relevant and effective risk measures for specific risks. The approach relies on developing risk models to represent interactions between risk factors and carrying out analysis to identify critical factors on which risk measures must focus. To ameliorate the problem related to the scarcity of risks information often encountered in construction projects, Bayesian Belief Networks are used and expert knowledge is elicited to augment available information. The paper describes proposed modifications to the standard methods used to develop Bayesian Belief Networks in order to deal with divergent information originated from epistemic uncertainty of risks. The capacity of the proposed approach to provide better information to support risk related decision making is verified by means of an illustrative application to risk factors involved in the construction of cross passages between tunnels tubes in soft soils.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, 27-29 June 2012, Moscow, Russia
Editors	V. Telichenko, A. Volkov, I. Bilchuk
Place of Publication	Moscow, Russia
Publisher	Moscow State University of Civil Engineering
Pages	340-351
ISBN (Print)	978-5-93093-881-4
Publication status	Published - 27 Jun 2012
Event	14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, ICCCBE 2012 - Moscow, Russian Federation Duration: 27 Jun 2012 → 29 Jun 2012 Conference number: 14

Publication series

Name
Publisher	Moscow State University of Civil Engineering

Conference

Conference	14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, ICCCBE 2012
Abbreviated title	ICCCBE
Country	Russian Federation
City	Moscow
Period	27/06/12 → 29/06/12

Keywords

IR-80987
METIS-287574

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iccbe2012FullPaper
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Chivatá Cárdenas, I., Al-Jibouri, S. H. S., & Halman, J. I. M. (2012). A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects. In V. Telichenko, A. Volkov, & I. Bilchuk (Eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, 27-29 June 2012, Moscow, Russia (pp. 340-351). Moscow State University of Civil Engineering.

Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen ; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S. ; Halman, Johannes I.M. / A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects. Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, 27-29 June 2012, Moscow, Russia. editor / V. Telichenko ; A. Volkov ; I. Bilchuk. Moscow, Russia : Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, 2012. pp. 340-351

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title = "A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects",

abstract = "Although risk control is a key step in risk management of construction projects, very often risk measures used are based merely on personal experience and engineering judgement rather than analysis of comprehensive information relating to a specific risk. This paper deals with an approach to provide better information to derive relevant and effective risk measures for specific risks. The approach relies on developing risk models to represent interactions between risk factors and carrying out analysis to identify critical factors on which risk measures must focus. To ameliorate the problem related to the scarcity of risks information often encountered in construction projects, Bayesian Belief Networks are used and expert knowledge is elicited to augment available information. The paper describes proposed modifications to the standard methods used to develop Bayesian Belief Networks in order to deal with divergent information originated from epistemic uncertainty of risks. The capacity of the proposed approach to provide better information to support risk related decision making is verified by means of an illustrative application to risk factors involved in the construction of cross passages between tunnels tubes in soft soils.",

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booktitle = "Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, 27-29 June 2012, Moscow, Russia",

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Chivatá Cárdenas, I, Al-Jibouri, SHS & Halman, JIM 2012, A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects. in V Telichenko, A Volkov & I Bilchuk (eds), Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, 27-29 June 2012, Moscow, Russia. Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Moscow, Russia, pp. 340-351, 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, ICCCBE 2012, Moscow, Russian Federation, 27/06/12.

A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects. / Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Halman, Johannes I.M.

Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, 27-29 June 2012, Moscow, Russia. ed. / V. Telichenko; A. Volkov; I. Bilchuk. Moscow, Russia : Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, 2012. p. 340-351.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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T1 - A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects

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AU - Halman, Johannes I.M.

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PY - 2012/6/27

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N2 - Although risk control is a key step in risk management of construction projects, very often risk measures used are based merely on personal experience and engineering judgement rather than analysis of comprehensive information relating to a specific risk. This paper deals with an approach to provide better information to derive relevant and effective risk measures for specific risks. The approach relies on developing risk models to represent interactions between risk factors and carrying out analysis to identify critical factors on which risk measures must focus. To ameliorate the problem related to the scarcity of risks information often encountered in construction projects, Bayesian Belief Networks are used and expert knowledge is elicited to augment available information. The paper describes proposed modifications to the standard methods used to develop Bayesian Belief Networks in order to deal with divergent information originated from epistemic uncertainty of risks. The capacity of the proposed approach to provide better information to support risk related decision making is verified by means of an illustrative application to risk factors involved in the construction of cross passages between tunnels tubes in soft soils.

AB - Although risk control is a key step in risk management of construction projects, very often risk measures used are based merely on personal experience and engineering judgement rather than analysis of comprehensive information relating to a specific risk. This paper deals with an approach to provide better information to derive relevant and effective risk measures for specific risks. The approach relies on developing risk models to represent interactions between risk factors and carrying out analysis to identify critical factors on which risk measures must focus. To ameliorate the problem related to the scarcity of risks information often encountered in construction projects, Bayesian Belief Networks are used and expert knowledge is elicited to augment available information. The paper describes proposed modifications to the standard methods used to develop Bayesian Belief Networks in order to deal with divergent information originated from epistemic uncertainty of risks. The capacity of the proposed approach to provide better information to support risk related decision making is verified by means of an illustrative application to risk factors involved in the construction of cross passages between tunnels tubes in soft soils.

KW - IR-80987

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BT - Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, 27-29 June 2012, Moscow, Russia

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Chivatá Cárdenas I, Al-Jibouri SHS, Halman JIM. A bayesian belief networks approach to risk control in construction projects. In Telichenko V, Volkov A, Bilchuk I, editors, Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering, 27-29 June 2012, Moscow, Russia. Moscow, Russia: Moscow State University of Civil Engineering. 2012. p. 340-351