Uncertainties in the design process are investigated in this paper. A formal Bayesian method is presented for designers to quantify uncertainties in design process. The uncertainties are implemented in a decision support system that plays a key role in design of complex projects where a large and multidisciplinary team of engineers are involved. The proposed method produces the probability distribution function of the model score or uncertainty. Two example applications for design and empirical demonstrate application of the method.
|Title of host publication||Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making: Proceedings of the 10th International FLINS Conference, Istanbul, Turkey, 26–29 August 2012|
|Editors||Cengiz Kahraman, Etienne Kerre, Faik Tunc Bozbura|
|Publication status||Published - 2012|
|Name||World Scientific Proceedings Series on Computer Engineering and Information Science|
|Publisher||World Scientific Publishing|
Rajabali Nejad, M., & Spitas, C. (2012). A Bayesian framework for uncertainty formulation of engineering design proces. In C. Kahraman, E. Kerre, & F. T. Bozbura (Eds.), Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making: Proceedings of the 10th International FLINS Conference, Istanbul, Turkey, 26–29 August 2012 (pp. 418-423). (World Scientific Proceedings Series on Computer Engineering and Information Science; Vol. 7). World Scientific. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814417747_0067