A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels

Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas, Saad H.S. Al-Jibouri, Johannes I.M. Halman

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

29 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the development and use of a Bayesian based risk model containing more than forty relevant risk factors associated with the occurrence of volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. The developed risk model takes into account additional factors other than those normally used in analytical methods to estimate volume loss. The considered risk factors involve issues related to the excavation process, design, monitoring, human factors as well as variables associated with ground conditions. By means of data elicited from tunnel experts and the analysis of the importance of the various factors using sensitivity analysis, the model is evaluated and its ability to provide information to derive specific risk measures is verified.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Place of PublicationBangkok, Thailand
PublisherThailand Underground & Tunnelling Group
Pages-
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 21 May 2012

Publication series

Name
PublisherThailand Underground & Tunnelling Group

Fingerprint

Tunnels
Soils
Boring
Human engineering
Excavation
Sensitivity analysis
Process design
Monitoring

Keywords

  • METIS-284620
  • IR-80903

Cite this

Chivatá Cárdenas, I., Al-Jibouri, S. H. S., & Halman, J. I. M. (2012). A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. In Proceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand (pp. -). Bangkok, Thailand: Thailand Underground & Tunnelling Group.
Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen ; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S. ; Halman, Johannes I.M. / A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. Proceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand : Thailand Underground & Tunnelling Group, 2012. pp. -
@inproceedings{da26655da07d448c9caf474d915acd3d,
title = "A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels",
abstract = "Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the development and use of a Bayesian based risk model containing more than forty relevant risk factors associated with the occurrence of volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. The developed risk model takes into account additional factors other than those normally used in analytical methods to estimate volume loss. The considered risk factors involve issues related to the excavation process, design, monitoring, human factors as well as variables associated with ground conditions. By means of data elicited from tunnel experts and the analysis of the importance of the various factors using sensitivity analysis, the model is evaluated and its ability to provide information to derive specific risk measures is verified.",
keywords = "METIS-284620, IR-80903",
author = "{Chivat{\'a} C{\'a}rdenas}, Ibsen and Al-Jibouri, {Saad H.S.} and Halman, {Johannes I.M.}",
year = "2012",
month = "5",
day = "21",
language = "English",
publisher = "Thailand Underground & Tunnelling Group",
pages = "--",
booktitle = "Proceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand",

}

Chivatá Cárdenas, I, Al-Jibouri, SHS & Halman, JIM 2012, A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. in Proceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand. Thailand Underground & Tunnelling Group, Bangkok, Thailand, pp. -.

A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. / Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Halman, Johannes I.M.

Proceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand : Thailand Underground & Tunnelling Group, 2012. p. -.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels

AU - Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen

AU - Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.

AU - Halman, Johannes I.M.

PY - 2012/5/21

Y1 - 2012/5/21

N2 - Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the development and use of a Bayesian based risk model containing more than forty relevant risk factors associated with the occurrence of volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. The developed risk model takes into account additional factors other than those normally used in analytical methods to estimate volume loss. The considered risk factors involve issues related to the excavation process, design, monitoring, human factors as well as variables associated with ground conditions. By means of data elicited from tunnel experts and the analysis of the importance of the various factors using sensitivity analysis, the model is evaluated and its ability to provide information to derive specific risk measures is verified.

AB - Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the development and use of a Bayesian based risk model containing more than forty relevant risk factors associated with the occurrence of volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. The developed risk model takes into account additional factors other than those normally used in analytical methods to estimate volume loss. The considered risk factors involve issues related to the excavation process, design, monitoring, human factors as well as variables associated with ground conditions. By means of data elicited from tunnel experts and the analysis of the importance of the various factors using sensitivity analysis, the model is evaluated and its ability to provide information to derive specific risk measures is verified.

KW - METIS-284620

KW - IR-80903

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - -

BT - Proceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand

PB - Thailand Underground & Tunnelling Group

CY - Bangkok, Thailand

ER -

Chivatá Cárdenas I, Al-Jibouri SHS, Halman JIM. A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. In Proceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand: Thailand Underground & Tunnelling Group. 2012. p. -