A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels

Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas, Saad H.S. Al-Jibouri, Johannes I.M. Halman

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Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the development and use of a Bayesian based risk model containing more than forty relevant risk factors associated with the occurrence of volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. The developed risk model takes into account additional factors other than those normally used in analytical methods to estimate volume loss. The considered risk factors involve issues related to the excavation process, design, monitoring, human factors as well as variables associated with ground conditions. By means of data elicited from tunnel experts and the analysis of the importance of the various factors using sensitivity analysis, the model is evaluated and its ability to provide information to derive specific risk measures is verified.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
Place of PublicationBangkok, Thailand
PublisherThailand Underground & Tunnelling Group
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 21 May 2012
EventWorld tunneling congress 2012 - Bangkok, Thailand
Duration: 21 May 201223 May 2012

Publication series

PublisherThailand Underground & Tunnelling Group


ConferenceWorld tunneling congress 2012
Other21-05-2012 - 23-05-2012


  • METIS-284620
  • IR-80903


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