TY - GEN
T1 - A bayesian nework based risk model for volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels
AU - Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen
AU - Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.
AU - Halman, Johannes I.M.
PY - 2012/5/21
Y1 - 2012/5/21
N2 - Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if
materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the development and use of a Bayesian based risk model containing more than forty relevant risk factors associated with the occurrence of volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. The developed risk model takes into account additional factors other than those normally used in analytical methods to estimate volume loss. The considered risk factors involve issues related to the excavation process, design, monitoring, human factors as well as variables associated with ground conditions. By means of data elicited from tunnel experts and the analysis of the importance of the various factors using sensitivity analysis, the model is evaluated and its ability to provide information to derive specific risk measures is verified.
AB - Volume loss is one of the most important risks when boring a tunnel. This is particularly true when a tunnel is being constructed in soft soils. The risk of excessive volume loss, if
materialised can lead to large consequences such as damage in buildings on the surface. This paper describes the development and use of a Bayesian based risk model containing more than forty relevant risk factors associated with the occurrence of volume loss in soft soils in mechanized bored tunnels. The developed risk model takes into account additional factors other than those normally used in analytical methods to estimate volume loss. The considered risk factors involve issues related to the excavation process, design, monitoring, human factors as well as variables associated with ground conditions. By means of data elicited from tunnel experts and the analysis of the importance of the various factors using sensitivity analysis, the model is evaluated and its ability to provide information to derive specific risk measures is verified.
KW - METIS-284620
KW - IR-80903
M3 - Conference contribution
SP - -
BT - Proceedings of World Tunnel Congress 2012 and 38th General Assembly of International Tunneling and Underground Space Association, 21-23 May 2012, Bangkok, Thailand
PB - Thailand Underground & Tunnelling Group
CY - Bangkok, Thailand
T2 - World tunneling congress 2012
Y2 - 21 May 2012 through 23 May 2012
ER -