A computer model for assessing project risks and occurrence of failure costs

The construction industry is often criticised for failing to deliver its projects within the targeted budget and time. In many cases this is attributed to inefficient work and poor assessment of risks. Also literature has indicated that in the majority of the cases delays and unnecessary costs (here referred to as failure costs) are due to unattended risks and process related problems. The work in this paper describes the development of a proposed computer-based model for the assessment of process related risks and failure costs in construction projects. The paper also discusses preliminary results produced during the initial experimentations with the model. The proposed model is used as a basis to produce as many feasible construction alternatives as possible, based on given project constraints, to assess which of those produce less failure costs. In this case simulation is used to evaluate the performance of each alternative. Preliminary findings have shown that it is possible to use this model to indicate which construction method or alternative sequencing of activities produces a more favourable process. These findings have also shown that process related risks, as opposed to activity related risks, can form a major part of the project overall risks. The model has the potential to support decision making in construction by enabling the evaluation of many construction alternatives simultaneously.