A Cox Rate-and-State Model for Monitoring Seismic Hazard in the Groningen Gas Field

To monitor the seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field, this paper modifies the rate-and-state model that relates changes in pore pressure to induced seismic hazard by allowing for noise in pore pressure measurements and by explicitly taking into account gas production volumes. The first and second-moment structures of the resulting Cox process are analysed, an unbiased estimating equation approach for the unknown model parameters is proposed and the conditional distribution of the driving random measure is derived. A parallel Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm is used for sampling from the conditional distribution and to monitor the hazard.