TY - JOUR
T1 - A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping
AU - Almar, Rafael
AU - Ranasinghe, Roshanka
AU - Bergsma, Erwin W.J.
AU - Diaz, Harold
AU - Melet, Angelique
AU - Papa, Fabrice
AU - Vousdoukas, Michalis
AU - Athanasiou, Panagiotis
AU - Dada, Olusegun
AU - Almeida, Luis Pedro
AU - Kestenare, Elodie
N1 - Funding Information:
R.R. is partly supported by the AXA Research fund. P.A. is supported by the EU Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation under grant no. 776613 (EUCP: European Climate Prediction system).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2021/12
Y1 - 2021/12
N2 - Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic coastal flooding. This study presents global-scale potential coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise and storm surge, but also for wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours have increased by almost 50% over the last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates that globally aggregated annual overtopping hours will accelerate faster than the global mean sea-level rise itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless of climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours by the end of the 21st-century is projected to be up to 50 times larger compared to present-day. As sea level continues to rise, more regions around the world are projected to become exposed to coastal overtopping.
AB - Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic coastal flooding. This study presents global-scale potential coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise and storm surge, but also for wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours have increased by almost 50% over the last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates that globally aggregated annual overtopping hours will accelerate faster than the global mean sea-level rise itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless of climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours by the end of the 21st-century is projected to be up to 50 times larger compared to present-day. As sea level continues to rise, more regions around the world are projected to become exposed to coastal overtopping.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85108164286&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9
DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9
M3 - Article
C2 - 34145274
AN - SCOPUS:85108164286
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 12
JO - Nature communications
JF - Nature communications
M1 - 3775
ER -
