A methodology for validation of integrated systems models with an application to coastal-zone management in South-West Sulawesi

Integrated Systems Models (ISMs) have been developed over decades to support the planning and management of natural resources and the environment. The development of these models is based on the concepts of systems approach and integrated approach. However, the lack of a generally accepted definition of model validity and model validation, the inherent complexity of ISMs, the poor predictive value of historical data related to the natural-human system, the scarcity of field data and the high level of aggregation of ISMs make the validation of ISMs an extremely difficult task (Chapter 1). These problems raise a number of important questions, such as: to what extent can such models contribute to our knowledge and ability to manage the environment? Do they have added value in comparison with conventional process models? Centred in these questions are the two questions: how can the validity of an ISM be defined? How can this validity be determined? This thesis is aimed at answering these two questions.