A two-step approach to investigate the effect of rating curve uncertainty in the Elbe decision support system

YuePing Xu, Harriette Holzhauer, Martijn J. Booij, Hong-yue Sun*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

For river basin management, the reliability of the rating curves mainly depends on the accuracy and time period of the observed discharge and water level data. In the Elbe decision support system (DSS), the rating curves are combined with the HEC-6 model to investigate the effects of river engineering measures on the Elbe River system. In such situations, the uncertainty originating from the HEC-6 model is of significant importance for the reliability of the rating curves and the corresponding DSS results. This paper proposes a two-step approach to analyze the uncertainty in the rating curves and propagate it into the Elbe DSS: analytic method and Latin Hypercube simulation. Via this approach the uncertainty and sensitivity of model outputs to input parameters are successfully investigated. The results show that the proposed approach is very efficient in investigating the effect of uncertainty and can play an important role in improving decision-making under uncertainty
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1229-1238
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Zhejiang University. Science. A
Volume9
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Keywords

  • HEC-6 model
  • Uncertainty
  • Two-step approach
  • Elbe decision support system (DSS)

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