TY - JOUR
T1 - African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates
AU - Vousdoukas, Michalis I.
AU - Clarke, Joanne
AU - Ranasinghe, Roshanka
AU - Reimann, Lena
AU - Khalaf, Nadia
AU - Duong, Trang Minh
AU - Ouweneel, Birgitt
AU - Sabour, Salma
AU - Iles, Carley E.
AU - Trisos, Christopher H.
AU - Feyen, Luc
AU - Mentaschi, Lorenzo
AU - Simpson, Nicholas P.
N1 - Funding Information:
R.R. is partially supported by the AXA Research Fund. N.P.S. received financial support from the UK government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada (grant no. 109419 – 001). C.H.T. is supported by the FLAIR Fellowship Programme: a partnership between the African Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society funded by the UK government’s Global Challenges Research Fund. N.K. is supported by the Mapping Africa’s Endangered Archaeological Sites and Monuments project funded by Arcadia Fund, UK. S.S. is supported by the Leverhulme Trust Doctoral Training Scheme, UK.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/3
Y1 - 2022/3
N2 - The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.
AB - The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
M3 - Article
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 12
SP - 256
EP - 262
JO - Nature climate change
JF - Nature climate change
IS - 3
ER -
