TY - JOUR
T1 - An Assessment of the Tipping Point Behavior for Shoreline Retreat
T2 - A PCR Model Application at Vung Tau Beach, Vietnam
AU - Wang, Xiaoting
AU - Dastgheib, Ali
AU - Reyns, Johan
AU - Li, Fan
AU - Duong, Trang Minh
AU - Zhang, Weiguo
AU - Sun, Qinke
AU - Ranasinghe, Roshanka
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 by the authors.
PY - 2024/11/24
Y1 - 2024/11/24
N2 - Storm waves and rising sea levels pose significant threats to low-lying coastal areas, particularly sandy beaches, which are especially vulnerable. The research on the long-time-scale changes in sandy coasts, especially the identification of tipping points in the shoreline-retreat rate, is limited. Vung Tau beach, characterized by its low terrain and rapid tourism-driven economic growth, was selected as a typical study area to quantify the shoreline retreat throughout the 21st century under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, and to identify the existence of tipping points by investigating the projected annual change in shoreline retreat (m/yr). This study employs the Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) model, a physics-based tool specifically designed for long-term coastline change assessments. The results indicate that shoreline retreat accelerates over time, particularly after a tipping point is reached around 2050 in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the median retreat distance is projected to increase from 19 m in 2050 to 89 m by 2100, nearly a fourfold rise. In comparison, the retreat distances are smaller under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but the same accelerating trend is observed beyond 2050. These findings highlight the growing risks associated with sea-level rise, especially the rapid increase in exceedance probabilities for retreat distances by the end of the century. By 2100, the probability of losing the entire beach at Vung Tau is projected to be 22% under SSP5-8.5. The approach of identifying tipping points based on the PCR model presented here can be applied to other sandy coastal regions, providing critical references for timely planning and the implementation of adaptation measures.
AB - Storm waves and rising sea levels pose significant threats to low-lying coastal areas, particularly sandy beaches, which are especially vulnerable. The research on the long-time-scale changes in sandy coasts, especially the identification of tipping points in the shoreline-retreat rate, is limited. Vung Tau beach, characterized by its low terrain and rapid tourism-driven economic growth, was selected as a typical study area to quantify the shoreline retreat throughout the 21st century under various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, and to identify the existence of tipping points by investigating the projected annual change in shoreline retreat (m/yr). This study employs the Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) model, a physics-based tool specifically designed for long-term coastline change assessments. The results indicate that shoreline retreat accelerates over time, particularly after a tipping point is reached around 2050 in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the median retreat distance is projected to increase from 19 m in 2050 to 89 m by 2100, nearly a fourfold rise. In comparison, the retreat distances are smaller under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but the same accelerating trend is observed beyond 2050. These findings highlight the growing risks associated with sea-level rise, especially the rapid increase in exceedance probabilities for retreat distances by the end of the century. By 2100, the probability of losing the entire beach at Vung Tau is projected to be 22% under SSP5-8.5. The approach of identifying tipping points based on the PCR model presented here can be applied to other sandy coastal regions, providing critical references for timely planning and the implementation of adaptation measures.
KW - climate change
KW - probabilistic modeling
KW - sandy beach
KW - shoreline retreat
KW - tipping point identification
KW - Vung Tau beach
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85213213972&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/jmse12122141
DO - 10.3390/jmse12122141
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85213213972
SN - 2077-1312
VL - 12
JO - Journal of marine science and engineering
JF - Journal of marine science and engineering
IS - 12
M1 - 2141
ER -