An attribution study of the impactful extreme heat across Asia in 2024

Prolonged extreme heat affected large parts of Asia during April–May 2024, with temperatures exceeding 40 °C across multiple regions and causing widespread impacts on human health, livelihoods, education, energy systems, agriculture, and animal health. We conducted a rapid attribution analysis to assess the influence of human-induced climate change on the likelihood and intensity of this event across three regions: West Asia (Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Jordan), the Philippines, and South and Southeast Asia (India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia). Region-specific event definitions were analysed using climate model simulations and observational datasets, alongside an assessment of key vulnerability and exposure factors likely shaping impacts beyond the meteorological conditions. We found that under current climate conditions, the event corresponds to approximately a 1-in-10-year event in West Asia and the Philippines, and a 1-in-30-year event in South and Southeast Asia. In West Asia, climate change increased the likelihood of the event by a factor of about five and intensified temperatures by around 1.7 °C. In the Philippines, climate change increased the intensity by about 1.2 °C and rendered such an event virtually impossible without human influence, with El Niño contributing only a minor additional warming. For South and Southeast Asia, where the analysis is based on observational data only, we identify a strong climate change signal in April 2024 mean temperatures, with extreme heat estimated to be at least 30 times more likely and around 0.8-1 °C hotter, consistent with previous attribution studies. The vulnerability and exposure analysis highlights how conflict and displacement, limited access to cooling, water scarcity, urban heat amplification, agricultural dependence, and occupational exposure likely shaped the observed impacts. Overall, our findings demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change substantially amplified the 2024 Asian heat event, highlighting the urgent need to address escalating heat risks.