An optimized D-dimer cut-off value to predict pulmonary thromboembolism in COVID-19 patients

Pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) is a common complication in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Elevated D-dimer levels are observed even in the absence of PTE, reducing its discriminative ability as a screening test. It is unknown whether conventional D-dimer cut-off values, as used in the YEARS algorithm, apply to COVID-19 patients. This study aimed to determine the optimal D-dimer cut-off value to predict PTE in COVID-19 patients. All confirmed COVID-19 patients with a computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) performed ≤5 days after admission due to suspicion of PTE between March 2020 and February 2021, at Medisch Spectrum Twente, The Netherlands, were retrospectively analyzed. The association between PTE and D-dimer levels prior to CTPA, and other potential predictors, was analyzed using logistic regression analyses. The optimal cut-off value was identified using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. In 142 patients, PTE prevalence was 20.4%. The optimal cut-off value was 750 ng/mL (sensitivity 100%; specificity 19.5%; negative predictive value 100%; positive predictive value 24.2%). In total, 15 of 113 (13%) patients without PTE had a D-dimer level ≥500 and <750 ng/mL. In our population of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, a D-dimer level <750 ng/mL safely excluded PTE. Compared to the YEARS 500 ng/mL cut-off value, 13% fewer patients are in need of a CTPA, with similar sensitivity. Future research is required for external validation.