Analysis of Buruli Ulcer prevalence in Amansie West district: a geostatistical approach

Buruli Ulcer (BU) is a disease caused by Mycobacterium Ulcerans (MU). The exact mode of transmission is yet unknown. However, the occurrences of BU cases in some specific discrete foci suggest a space-confined distribution pattern; this motivates this study. We incorporate a geostatistical technique to investigate the spatial patterns of BU prevalence in part of the Amansie West district of Ghana. A semivariogram model was computed to summarize the spatial variation and to determine the strength and spatial scale of the pattern. Ordinary kriging was used to produce a spatially continuous risk map of BU. The semivariogram model indicated a wider range of spatial dependence. Such nature of spatial dependence could be attributed to poor nature of public health interventions and the nature of BU risk factors. Spatial distribution of BU was observed to be high at the southern parts of the study area. Empirical classification of the study area into low, moderate and high risk zones showed that 20% of the communities are within the high risk zone; 7% within the moderate risk zone; and 73% within the low risk zone.