Analytical paper to guide the development of operational procedures on CREWS programming in Fragile, Conflict and Violence (FCV) settings

By 2030, nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor will reside in countries affected by FCV. Violent conflict has spiked dramatically since 2010 in several regions, and the fragility landscape is becoming more complex. The world has seen a series of setbacks to stability in regions across the world: from Asia and Africa to Latin America and the Caribbean, and more recently in Eastern Europe and the MENA region. Fragility is intertwined with other global challenges like climate change, pandemics, and food insecurity: 15 of the top 25 countries most vulnerable to climate-related impacts are FCV countries. Over the past two decades, significant strides have been made in improving Early Warning System (EWS) policies, strategies, and practices. While these advancements have saved countless lives, crucial policy, science, and practice gaps must be addressed to fully institutionalise EWS in Fragile, Conflict, and Violence (FCV)- affected settings. 1–3. In recent years, attention has turned to the need to ensure that countries and territories affected by FCV can reduce the risks of disasters4 and within that, can implement and sustainably maintain Early Warning Systems and Anticipatory Action (AA) investments5 .
There has been a noticeable shift in focus towards protecting people living in complex conditions through EWS. This shift is a response to the recognition that climate change, combined with other complex risk drivers, poses a high likelihood of social, health, economic, infrastructure and other impacts in FCV settings due to heightened vulnerabilities, low resilience to (recurrent) shocks, and shortfalls in governance6–8. There has been a significant change at the policy level, particularly since adoption by UN member states of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. FCV dynamics have also as a significant consideration during the midterm review of the Sendai Framework conducted in 2023.