TY - JOUR
T1 - Analyzing adaptation strategies for maize production under future climate change in Guanzhong Plain, China
AU - Saddique, Qaisar
AU - Cai, Huanjie
AU - Xu, Jiatun
AU - Ajaz, Ali
AU - He, Jianqiang
AU - Yu, Qiang
AU - Wang, Yunfei
AU - Chen, Hui
AU - Khan, Muhammad Imran
AU - Liu, De Li
AU - He, Liang
PY - 2020/12
Y1 - 2020/12
N2 - Agricultural adaptation is crucial for sustainable farming amid global climate change. By harnessing projected climate data and using crop modeling techniques, the future trends of food production can be predicted and better adaptation strategies can be assessed. The main objective of this study is to analyze the maize yield response to future climate projections in the Guanzhong Plain, China, by employing multiple crop models and determining the effects of irrigation and planting date adaptations. Five crop models (APSIM, AquaCrop, DSSAT, EPIC, and STICS) were used to simulate maize (Zea mays L.) yield under projected climate conditions during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, based on the combination of 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5). Simulated scenarios included elevated and constant CO2 levels under current adaptation (no change from current irrigation amount, planting date, and fertilizer rate), irrigation adaptation, planting date adaptation, and irrigation-planting date adaptations. Results from both maize-producing districts showed that current adaptation practices led to a decrease in the average yield of 19%, 27%, and 33% (relative to baseline yield) during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. The future yield was projected to increase by 1.1–23.2%, 1.0–22.3%, and 2–31% under irrigation, delayed planting date, and double adaptation strategies, respectively. Adaptation strategies were found effective for increasing the future average yield. We conclude that maize yield in the Guanzhong Plain can be improved under future climate change conditions if irrigation and planting adaptation strategies are used in conjunction.
AB - Agricultural adaptation is crucial for sustainable farming amid global climate change. By harnessing projected climate data and using crop modeling techniques, the future trends of food production can be predicted and better adaptation strategies can be assessed. The main objective of this study is to analyze the maize yield response to future climate projections in the Guanzhong Plain, China, by employing multiple crop models and determining the effects of irrigation and planting date adaptations. Five crop models (APSIM, AquaCrop, DSSAT, EPIC, and STICS) were used to simulate maize (Zea mays L.) yield under projected climate conditions during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, based on the combination of 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5). Simulated scenarios included elevated and constant CO2 levels under current adaptation (no change from current irrigation amount, planting date, and fertilizer rate), irrigation adaptation, planting date adaptation, and irrigation-planting date adaptations. Results from both maize-producing districts showed that current adaptation practices led to a decrease in the average yield of 19%, 27%, and 33% (relative to baseline yield) during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. The future yield was projected to increase by 1.1–23.2%, 1.0–22.3%, and 2–31% under irrigation, delayed planting date, and double adaptation strategies, respectively. Adaptation strategies were found effective for increasing the future average yield. We conclude that maize yield in the Guanzhong Plain can be improved under future climate change conditions if irrigation and planting adaptation strategies are used in conjunction.
KW - Adaptation
KW - Climate change
KW - Irrigation
KW - Maize yield
KW - Multiple crop models
KW - Planting date
KW - ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
KW - n/a OA procedure
U2 - 10.1007/s11027-020-09935-0
DO - 10.1007/s11027-020-09935-0
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85094214886
SN - 1381-2386
VL - 25
SP - 1523
EP - 1543
JO - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change
JF - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change
ER -