Antifragility as a means to utilize uncertainty in product development decisions

Jos de Lange, Eric Lutters, Denzel Kennon, Corné S.L. Schutte

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Decisions are the common denominator of any product development cycle by fostering and consolidating the product definition, the requirement specification and the design rationale of these cycles. Such decisions are generally arduous as they are often based on incomplete information and always involve significant levels of uncertainty. This ubiquitous influence of uncertainty is characteristic of any product development cycle. Habitually, this influence is regarded as predominantly negative, so trying to mitigate uncertainties seem the obvious thing to do. However, uncertainty is not by definition detrimental or undesirable. In essence, it is hardly more than a common characteristic of any activity, decision or result in product development cycles. Primarily, uncertainty in product development should therefore be regarded neutrally. In this respect, the notion antifragility not only assumes such a neutral stance, it relates uncertainty to the response of a system – in this case an evolving product development cycle. By means of this theory, this paper aims at addressing and utilizing uncertainties with regard to the impact that decisions have on the product development cycle. The resulting solution principles allow to assess the potential impact of decisions and to determine and evaluate the desired behaviour of the product definition on various types of uncertainty. Simultaneously it allows for rigorous evaluation of both the quality and veracity of design decisions, aiming to make uncertainty instrumental in governing product development cycles.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Conference on Competitive Manufacturing (COMA 19) Proceedings
EditorsDimiter Dimitrov, Devon Hagendorn-Hansen, Konrad von Leipzig
Place of PublicationStellenbosch
Pages450-455
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - 30 Jan 2019
Event7th International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing 2019 - Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
Duration: 30 Jan 20191 Feb 2019
Conference number: 7
http://conferences.sun.ac.za/index.php/COMA19/coma19

Conference

Conference7th International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing 2019
Abbreviated titleCOMA 2019
CountrySouth Africa
CityStellenbosch
Period30/01/191/02/19
Internet address

Fingerprint

Product development
Uncertainty
Incomplete information
Evaluation
Requirements specification
Rationale

Keywords

  • Antifragility
  • Product development
  • Decision making

Cite this

de Lange, J., Lutters, E., Kennon, D., & Schutte, C. S. L. (2019). Antifragility as a means to utilize uncertainty in product development decisions. In D. Dimitrov, D. Hagendorn-Hansen, & K. von Leipzig (Eds.), International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing (COMA 19) Proceedings (pp. 450-455). Stellenbosch.
de Lange, Jos ; Lutters, Eric ; Kennon, Denzel ; Schutte, Corné S.L. / Antifragility as a means to utilize uncertainty in product development decisions. International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing (COMA 19) Proceedings. editor / Dimiter Dimitrov ; Devon Hagendorn-Hansen ; Konrad von Leipzig. Stellenbosch, 2019. pp. 450-455
@inproceedings{e72e1250b3b148178e88ea7e61b044b1,
title = "Antifragility as a means to utilize uncertainty in product development decisions",
abstract = "Decisions are the common denominator of any product development cycle by fostering and consolidating the product definition, the requirement specification and the design rationale of these cycles. Such decisions are generally arduous as they are often based on incomplete information and always involve significant levels of uncertainty. This ubiquitous influence of uncertainty is characteristic of any product development cycle. Habitually, this influence is regarded as predominantly negative, so trying to mitigate uncertainties seem the obvious thing to do. However, uncertainty is not by definition detrimental or undesirable. In essence, it is hardly more than a common characteristic of any activity, decision or result in product development cycles. Primarily, uncertainty in product development should therefore be regarded neutrally. In this respect, the notion antifragility not only assumes such a neutral stance, it relates uncertainty to the response of a system – in this case an evolving product development cycle. By means of this theory, this paper aims at addressing and utilizing uncertainties with regard to the impact that decisions have on the product development cycle. The resulting solution principles allow to assess the potential impact of decisions and to determine and evaluate the desired behaviour of the product definition on various types of uncertainty. Simultaneously it allows for rigorous evaluation of both the quality and veracity of design decisions, aiming to make uncertainty instrumental in governing product development cycles.",
keywords = "Antifragility, Product development, Decision making",
author = "{de Lange}, Jos and Eric Lutters and Denzel Kennon and Schutte, {Corn{\'e} S.L.}",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
day = "30",
language = "English",
isbn = "978-0-7972-1779-9",
pages = "450--455",
editor = "Dimiter Dimitrov and Devon Hagendorn-Hansen and {von Leipzig}, Konrad",
booktitle = "International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing (COMA 19) Proceedings",

}

de Lange, J, Lutters, E, Kennon, D & Schutte, CSL 2019, Antifragility as a means to utilize uncertainty in product development decisions. in D Dimitrov, D Hagendorn-Hansen & K von Leipzig (eds), International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing (COMA 19) Proceedings. Stellenbosch, pp. 450-455, 7th International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing 2019, Stellenbosch, South Africa, 30/01/19.

Antifragility as a means to utilize uncertainty in product development decisions. / de Lange, Jos ; Lutters, Eric; Kennon, Denzel; Schutte, Corné S.L.

International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing (COMA 19) Proceedings. ed. / Dimiter Dimitrov; Devon Hagendorn-Hansen; Konrad von Leipzig. Stellenbosch, 2019. p. 450-455.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Antifragility as a means to utilize uncertainty in product development decisions

AU - de Lange, Jos

AU - Lutters, Eric

AU - Kennon, Denzel

AU - Schutte, Corné S.L.

PY - 2019/1/30

Y1 - 2019/1/30

N2 - Decisions are the common denominator of any product development cycle by fostering and consolidating the product definition, the requirement specification and the design rationale of these cycles. Such decisions are generally arduous as they are often based on incomplete information and always involve significant levels of uncertainty. This ubiquitous influence of uncertainty is characteristic of any product development cycle. Habitually, this influence is regarded as predominantly negative, so trying to mitigate uncertainties seem the obvious thing to do. However, uncertainty is not by definition detrimental or undesirable. In essence, it is hardly more than a common characteristic of any activity, decision or result in product development cycles. Primarily, uncertainty in product development should therefore be regarded neutrally. In this respect, the notion antifragility not only assumes such a neutral stance, it relates uncertainty to the response of a system – in this case an evolving product development cycle. By means of this theory, this paper aims at addressing and utilizing uncertainties with regard to the impact that decisions have on the product development cycle. The resulting solution principles allow to assess the potential impact of decisions and to determine and evaluate the desired behaviour of the product definition on various types of uncertainty. Simultaneously it allows for rigorous evaluation of both the quality and veracity of design decisions, aiming to make uncertainty instrumental in governing product development cycles.

AB - Decisions are the common denominator of any product development cycle by fostering and consolidating the product definition, the requirement specification and the design rationale of these cycles. Such decisions are generally arduous as they are often based on incomplete information and always involve significant levels of uncertainty. This ubiquitous influence of uncertainty is characteristic of any product development cycle. Habitually, this influence is regarded as predominantly negative, so trying to mitigate uncertainties seem the obvious thing to do. However, uncertainty is not by definition detrimental or undesirable. In essence, it is hardly more than a common characteristic of any activity, decision or result in product development cycles. Primarily, uncertainty in product development should therefore be regarded neutrally. In this respect, the notion antifragility not only assumes such a neutral stance, it relates uncertainty to the response of a system – in this case an evolving product development cycle. By means of this theory, this paper aims at addressing and utilizing uncertainties with regard to the impact that decisions have on the product development cycle. The resulting solution principles allow to assess the potential impact of decisions and to determine and evaluate the desired behaviour of the product definition on various types of uncertainty. Simultaneously it allows for rigorous evaluation of both the quality and veracity of design decisions, aiming to make uncertainty instrumental in governing product development cycles.

KW - Antifragility

KW - Product development

KW - Decision making

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 978-0-7972-1779-9

SP - 450

EP - 455

BT - International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing (COMA 19) Proceedings

A2 - Dimitrov, Dimiter

A2 - Hagendorn-Hansen, Devon

A2 - von Leipzig, Konrad

CY - Stellenbosch

ER -

de Lange J, Lutters E, Kennon D, Schutte CSL. Antifragility as a means to utilize uncertainty in product development decisions. In Dimitrov D, Hagendorn-Hansen D, von Leipzig K, editors, International Conference on Competitive Manufacturing (COMA 19) Proceedings. Stellenbosch. 2019. p. 450-455