Application of an Unvalidated Process Model to Define Operational Functional Failures

M. Schwarz, P. Schepers, J. van Boggelen, R. Loendersloot, T. Tinga

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Abstract

Comprehensive transient models (CTMs) are not readily available for complex industrial processes. In contrast, fundamentals-based process models (FbPMs) often are readily available and data-driven models (DDMs) can be readily developed. Generally, FbPMs have enough accuracy and safety margin to size equipment for steady-state operations but in contrast to CTMs, are not accurate enough to predict the unique operational responses required for applications, such as the definition of system functional failures in predictive maintenance (PdM). However, in the absence of more accurate models, FbPMs may be valid to indicate response trends or determine operational windows, with respect to safety and functionality. The case study is a Raw Material Preparation Plant, used to screen, grind and dry coal for an iron-making process. Following DDM construction through supervised machine learning from operational data, the validity of an available FbPM against operations is investigated through: (1) comparison of FbPM and DDM regression responses (2) consideration of physical phenomena and (3) comparison of sensitivity analysis results. Following validation, the definition and detection of functional failures in the plant as obtained from the FbPM will be used as the first step towards system PdM.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference
EditorsPiero Baraldi, Francesco Di Maio, Enrico Zio
PublisherResearch Publishing
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 21 Jun 2020
Event30th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM) 2020 - Venice, Italy
Duration: 1 Nov 20206 Nov 2020

Conference

Conference30th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM) 2020
Abbreviated titleESREL-PSAM
CountryItaly
CityVenice
Period1/11/206/11/20

Keywords

  • Functional failure
  • Supervised machine learning
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Predictive maintenance
  • Data driven model
  • Fundamentals-based process model
  • Coal
  • Morris’ method

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