Are Dutch homeowners willing to invest in sustainable heating systems? Comparing intentions and determinants in four scenarios

The energy transition, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, requires everyone's efforts to succeed. In the Netherlands, homeowners are expected to invest in sustainable heating. This article describes a cross-sectional survey among Dutch homeowners (N = 302) investigating determinants of their intentions to make such investments. Unlike earlier research, this study problematized the concept of investment intentions, assuming that intentions and determinants might vary between different investment scenarios. Four scenarios were distinguished: (1) long-term status quo intentions, (2) short-term status quo intentions, (3) intentions in the case of higher natural gas prices, and (4) intentions in the case of government support. The results show that homeowners' investment intentions differed significantly between the four scenarios: Government support led to the highest intentions, followed by, respectively, long-term status quo intentions, intentions in the case of higher gas prices, and short-term status quo intentions. Furthermore, the behavioral determinants differed considerably between the scenarios. The overall conclusion is that strategies to promote homeowners' investments in sustainable heating must be aligned with the scenarios foreseen. For each scenario, our study lists determinants that could be emphasized.