Aspiration Adaptation, Poverty, and Agricultural Management: An Agent-Based Modelling Study

Aleid Sunniva Teeuwen*, Yue Dou, Markus A. Meyer, Daniel Ayalew Mekonnen, Ermias Tesfaye Teferi, Solomon Bizayehu Wassie, Andrew Nelson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

To design more efficient and equitable agricultural technologies and policies, we need to understand why individuals do not act in line with the expectations of researchers and policy makers, and we need to understand how and why interventions exacerbate existing inequalities. Both can be understood by exploring how aspirations influence households’ future-oriented behaviour. This paper does so by introducing the 3spire model, which integrates three aspirational dimensions: income, food self-sufficiency, and leisure, and by examining how aspirations adapt, shift and influence households’ behaviour over time. The 3spire model incorporates aspiration adaptation theory to simulate agents’ farm management decisions and performance over time. Agents, representing farming households, interact within a social network and consider alternative plans iteratively, choosing the first satisficing plan. Preliminary findings indicated that initial wealth influenced aspiration dynamics. There was, however, great heterogeneity in these aspiration dynamics, also among households with similar levels of initial wealth, suggesting additional factors at play. Further research should investigate other types of non-monetary wealth and incorporate context-specific data to inform targeted policies and interventions, fostering equitable rural development, and reducing poverty and inequality.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Social Simulation
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 18th Social Simulation Conference, 2023
EditorsCorinna Elsenbroich, Harko Verhagen
PublisherSpringer
Pages217-233
Number of pages17
ISBN (Print)9783031577840
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 23 Jul 2024
Event18th Social Simulation Conference, SSC 2023 - University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Duration: 4 Sept 20237 Sept 2023
Conference number: 18
https://ssc23-sphsu.online/

Publication series

NameSpringer Proceedings in Complexity
ISSN (Print)2213-8684
ISSN (Electronic)2213-8692

Conference

Conference18th Social Simulation Conference, SSC 2023
Abbreviated titleSSC 2023
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityGlasgow
Period4/09/237/09/23
Internet address

Keywords

  • Ethiopia
  • Food security
  • Land use
  • Satisficing
  • Smallholder farming
  • 2024 OA procedure

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