Assessing loss event frequencies of smart grid cyber threats: Encoding flexibility into FAIR using Bayesian network approach

Anhtuan Le, Yue Chen, Kok Keong Chai, Alexandr Vasenev, L. Montoya

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

    9 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Assessing loss event frequencies (LEF) of smart grid cyber threats is essential for planning cost-effective countermeasures. Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR) is a well-known framework that can be applied to consider threats in a structured manner by using look-up tables related to a taxonomy of threat parameters. This paper proposes a method for constructing a Bayesian network that extends FAIR, for obtaining quantitative LEF results of high granularity, by means of a traceable and repeatable process, even for fuzzy input. Moreover, the proposed encoding enables sensitivity analysis to show how changes in fuzzy input contribute to the LEF. Finally, the method can highlight the most influential elements of a particular threat to help plan countermeasures better. The numerical results of applying the method to a smart grid show that our Bayesian model can not only provide evaluation consistent with FAIR, but also supports more flexible input, more granular output, as well as illustrates how individual threat components contribute to the LEF.
    Original languageUndefined
    Title of host publication1st EAI International Conference on Smart Grid Inspired Future
    Place of PublicationLondon
    PublisherSpringer
    Pages43-51
    Number of pages8
    ISBN (Print)978-3-319-47729-9
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - May 2016
    Event1st EAI International Conference on Smart Grid Inspired Future, SmartGift 2016 - Liverpool, United Kingdom
    Duration: 19 May 201620 May 2016
    Conference number: 1
    http://smartgiftconf.org/2016/

    Publication series

    Name
    PublisherSpringer Verlag

    Conference

    Conference1st EAI International Conference on Smart Grid Inspired Future, SmartGift 2016
    Abbreviated titleSmartGift
    CountryUnited Kingdom
    CityLiverpool
    Period19/05/1620/05/16
    Internet address

    Keywords

    • SCS-Cybersecurity
    • IR-100454
    • METIS-316930
    • EWI-27020

    Cite this

    Le, A., Chen, Y., Chai, K. K., Vasenev, A., & Montoya, L. (2016). Assessing loss event frequencies of smart grid cyber threats: Encoding flexibility into FAIR using Bayesian network approach. In 1st EAI International Conference on Smart Grid Inspired Future (pp. 43-51). London: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47729-9_5