Assessing the effect of mitigation measures on landslide hazard using 2D numerical runout modelling

Y.A. Hussin, R. Ciurean, S. Frigerio, G. Marcato, C. Calligaris, P. Reichenbach, C.J. van Westen, T. Glade

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Landslide mitigation measures are used to reduce the risk affecting mountain communities. The quantitative estimation of the change or reduction in risk, after implementing mitigation measures, requires modeling of past events and the forward prediction of possible future occurences. However, the forward-prediction of landslide hazard is subjected to uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge on some key aspects like the possible source volume that can be triggered and model parameters that determine the landslide runout. In this study, a back-analysis of a debris flow event was carried out using MassMov2D to create a set of parameter ranges for forward-predicting runouts with mitigation measures. We approached the issue of uncertainty by systematically sampling parameters from wide ranges and running hundreds of different runout scenarios. Simulations from back-analysis were compared with the forward-predicted models to determine changes in the spread and intensity of debris flows affecting elements at risk (e.g. houses and roads). This study is a first step towards a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) being carried out within the EC FP-7 funded CHANGES network (Grant Agreement No. 263953).
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLandslide science for a safer geoenvironment
EditorsK. Sassa, P. Canuti, Y. Yin
Place of PublicationBerlin
PublisherSpringer
Pages679-684
ISBN (Print)978-3-319-05050-8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Publication series

NameMethods of landslide studies
Number2

Fingerprint

landslide
back analysis
hazard
debris flow
modeling
prediction
risk assessment
road
mountain
sampling
simulation
parameter
mitigation measure
effect

Keywords

  • METIS-305329

Cite this

Hussin, Y. A., Ciurean, R., Frigerio, S., Marcato, G., Calligaris, C., Reichenbach, P., ... Glade, T. (2014). Assessing the effect of mitigation measures on landslide hazard using 2D numerical runout modelling. In K. Sassa, P. Canuti, & Y. Yin (Eds.), Landslide science for a safer geoenvironment (pp. 679-684). (Methods of landslide studies; No. 2). Berlin: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_105
Hussin, Y.A. ; Ciurean, R. ; Frigerio, S. ; Marcato, G. ; Calligaris, C. ; Reichenbach, P. ; van Westen, C.J. ; Glade, T. / Assessing the effect of mitigation measures on landslide hazard using 2D numerical runout modelling. Landslide science for a safer geoenvironment. editor / K. Sassa ; P. Canuti ; Y. Yin. Berlin : Springer, 2014. pp. 679-684 (Methods of landslide studies; 2).
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abstract = "Landslide mitigation measures are used to reduce the risk affecting mountain communities. The quantitative estimation of the change or reduction in risk, after implementing mitigation measures, requires modeling of past events and the forward prediction of possible future occurences. However, the forward-prediction of landslide hazard is subjected to uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge on some key aspects like the possible source volume that can be triggered and model parameters that determine the landslide runout. In this study, a back-analysis of a debris flow event was carried out using MassMov2D to create a set of parameter ranges for forward-predicting runouts with mitigation measures. We approached the issue of uncertainty by systematically sampling parameters from wide ranges and running hundreds of different runout scenarios. Simulations from back-analysis were compared with the forward-predicted models to determine changes in the spread and intensity of debris flows affecting elements at risk (e.g. houses and roads). This study is a first step towards a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) being carried out within the EC FP-7 funded CHANGES network (Grant Agreement No. 263953).",
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Hussin, YA, Ciurean, R, Frigerio, S, Marcato, G, Calligaris, C, Reichenbach, P, van Westen, CJ & Glade, T 2014, Assessing the effect of mitigation measures on landslide hazard using 2D numerical runout modelling. in K Sassa, P Canuti & Y Yin (eds), Landslide science for a safer geoenvironment. Methods of landslide studies, no. 2, Springer, Berlin, pp. 679-684. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_105

Assessing the effect of mitigation measures on landslide hazard using 2D numerical runout modelling. / Hussin, Y.A.; Ciurean, R.; Frigerio, S.; Marcato, G.; Calligaris, C.; Reichenbach, P.; van Westen, C.J.; Glade, T.

Landslide science for a safer geoenvironment. ed. / K. Sassa; P. Canuti; Y. Yin. Berlin : Springer, 2014. p. 679-684 (Methods of landslide studies; No. 2).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Frigerio, S.

AU - Marcato, G.

AU - Calligaris, C.

AU - Reichenbach, P.

AU - van Westen, C.J.

AU - Glade, T.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Landslide mitigation measures are used to reduce the risk affecting mountain communities. The quantitative estimation of the change or reduction in risk, after implementing mitigation measures, requires modeling of past events and the forward prediction of possible future occurences. However, the forward-prediction of landslide hazard is subjected to uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge on some key aspects like the possible source volume that can be triggered and model parameters that determine the landslide runout. In this study, a back-analysis of a debris flow event was carried out using MassMov2D to create a set of parameter ranges for forward-predicting runouts with mitigation measures. We approached the issue of uncertainty by systematically sampling parameters from wide ranges and running hundreds of different runout scenarios. Simulations from back-analysis were compared with the forward-predicted models to determine changes in the spread and intensity of debris flows affecting elements at risk (e.g. houses and roads). This study is a first step towards a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) being carried out within the EC FP-7 funded CHANGES network (Grant Agreement No. 263953).

AB - Landslide mitigation measures are used to reduce the risk affecting mountain communities. The quantitative estimation of the change or reduction in risk, after implementing mitigation measures, requires modeling of past events and the forward prediction of possible future occurences. However, the forward-prediction of landslide hazard is subjected to uncertainties due to the lack of knowledge on some key aspects like the possible source volume that can be triggered and model parameters that determine the landslide runout. In this study, a back-analysis of a debris flow event was carried out using MassMov2D to create a set of parameter ranges for forward-predicting runouts with mitigation measures. We approached the issue of uncertainty by systematically sampling parameters from wide ranges and running hundreds of different runout scenarios. Simulations from back-analysis were compared with the forward-predicted models to determine changes in the spread and intensity of debris flows affecting elements at risk (e.g. houses and roads). This study is a first step towards a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) being carried out within the EC FP-7 funded CHANGES network (Grant Agreement No. 263953).

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M3 - Chapter

SN - 978-3-319-05050-8

T3 - Methods of landslide studies

SP - 679

EP - 684

BT - Landslide science for a safer geoenvironment

A2 - Sassa, K.

A2 - Canuti, P.

A2 - Yin, Y.

PB - Springer

CY - Berlin

ER -

Hussin YA, Ciurean R, Frigerio S, Marcato G, Calligaris C, Reichenbach P et al. Assessing the effect of mitigation measures on landslide hazard using 2D numerical runout modelling. In Sassa K, Canuti P, Yin Y, editors, Landslide science for a safer geoenvironment. Berlin: Springer. 2014. p. 679-684. (Methods of landslide studies; 2). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05050-8_105