Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 341-351 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | GI_Forum |
| Volume | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2017 |
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Assessment of Future Heat Stress Risk in European Regions : Towards a better Integration of Socio-economic Scenarios. / Rohat, G.T.; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy.
In: GI_Forum, Vol. 1, 2017, p. 341-351.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessment of Future Heat Stress Risk in European Regions
T2 - Towards a better Integration of Socio-economic Scenarios
AU - Rohat, G.T.
AU - Flacke, Johannes
AU - Dao, Hy
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - The overwhelming majority of integrated assessments of future climate risks are made using climate scenarios and projections superimposed on current socio-economic conditions only; hence they fail to account for the influence of socio-economic changes. Following the recent IPCC-related new scenarios framework for climate change research, a few assessments of climate risks have attempted to integrate socio-economic changes through the combination of climate and socio-economic scenarios. However, a number of shortcomings remain, such as the lack of consideration of vulnerability, the low spatial resolution, and the lack of contextual focus. In this paper, we seek to examine these shortcomings through an exploratory assessment of future heat stress risk in 271 European regions up to 2030, based on the combination of several climate and socio-economic scenarios. We also discuss the main barriers faced – such as the limited number of socioeconomic projections carried out to date and the diversity of existing socio-economic scenarios – and provide a reflection on promising approaches to foster the use of socio-economic projections and scenarios within integrated assessments of future climate risks.
AB - The overwhelming majority of integrated assessments of future climate risks are made using climate scenarios and projections superimposed on current socio-economic conditions only; hence they fail to account for the influence of socio-economic changes. Following the recent IPCC-related new scenarios framework for climate change research, a few assessments of climate risks have attempted to integrate socio-economic changes through the combination of climate and socio-economic scenarios. However, a number of shortcomings remain, such as the lack of consideration of vulnerability, the low spatial resolution, and the lack of contextual focus. In this paper, we seek to examine these shortcomings through an exploratory assessment of future heat stress risk in 271 European regions up to 2030, based on the combination of several climate and socio-economic scenarios. We also discuss the main barriers faced – such as the limited number of socioeconomic projections carried out to date and the diversity of existing socio-economic scenarios – and provide a reflection on promising approaches to foster the use of socio-economic projections and scenarios within integrated assessments of future climate risks.
UR - https://ezproxy2.utwente.nl/login?url=https://webapps.itc.utwente.nl/library/2017/ref/flacke_ass.pdf
U2 - 10.1553/giscience2017_01_s341
DO - 10.1553/giscience2017_01_s341
M3 - Article
VL - 1
SP - 341
EP - 351
JO - GI_Forum
JF - GI_Forum
SN - 2308-1708
ER -