Automated Rare Event Simulation for Fault Tree Analysis via Minimal Cut Sets

Carlos E. Budde*, Mariëlle Stoelinga

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulation is a common technique to estimate dependability metrics for fault trees. A bottleneck in this technique is the number of samples needed, especially when the interesting events are rare and occur with low probability. Rare Event Simulation (RES) reduces the number of samples when analysing rare events. Importance splitting is a RES method that spawns more simulation runs from promising system states. How promising a state is, is indicated by an importance function, which concentrates the information that makes this method efficient. Importance functions are given by domain and RES experts. This hinders re-utilisation and involves decisions entailing potential human error. Focusing in (general) fault trees, in this paper we automatically derive importance functions based on the tree structure. For this we exploit a common fault tree concept, namely cut sets: the more elements from a cut set have failed, the higher the importance. We show that the cut-set-derived importance function is an easy-to-implement and simple concept, that can nonetheless compete against another (more involved) automatic importance function for RES.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMeasurement, Modelling and Evaluation of Computing Systems - 20th International GI/ITG Conference, MMB 2020, Proceedings
EditorsHolger Hermanns
PublisherSpringer Singapore
Pages259-277
Number of pages19
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-43024-5
ISBN (Print)978-3-030-43023-8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 9 Mar 2020
Event20th International GI/ITG Conference on Measurement, Modelling and Evaluation of Computing Systems, MMB 2020 (Canceled) - Saarbrücken, Germany
Duration: 16 Mar 202018 Mar 2020
Conference number: 20

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume12040 LNCS
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference20th International GI/ITG Conference on Measurement, Modelling and Evaluation of Computing Systems, MMB 2020 (Canceled)
Abbreviated titleMMB 2020
CountryGermany
CitySaarbrücken
Period16/03/2018/03/20

Keywords

  • Dynamic fault trees
  • Fault tree analysis
  • Importance splitting
  • Minimal cut sets
  • Rare event simulation

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