Barrier islands face a gradual path toward drowning under most sea level rise scenarios

Interrupted barrier coasts, which comprise 10% of the world’s coasts, consist of low-lying islands interrupted by inlets. Understanding their spatio-temporal behaviour and evolution is of great importance from an ecologic and socioeconomic point of view. Under moderate rates of sea level rise, barrier islands can survive by migrating onshore. However, the increasing sea level rise (SLR) rates that are expected to take place during the 21st century and beyond may cause an increasing proportion of barrier island chains to be below sea level. The present study looks at barrier island drowning timescales and spatial scales under different SLR scenarios, between the years 2000 and 2300.