TY - JOUR

T1 - Beyond ranking nodes

T2 - Predicting epidemic outbreak sizes by network centralities

AU - Bucur, Doina

AU - Holme, Petter

N1 - Funding Information:
PH was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP 18H01655 and by the Grant for Basic Science Research Projects by the Sumitomo Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Bucur, Holme.

PY - 2020/7/22

Y1 - 2020/7/22

N2 - Identifying important nodes for disease spreading is a central topic in network epidemiology. We investigate how well the position of a node, characterized by standard network measures, can predict its epidemiological importance in any graph of a given number of nodes. This is in contrast to other studies that deal with the easier prediction problem of ranking nodes by their epidemic importance in given graphs. As a benchmark for epidemic importance, we calculate the exact expected outbreak size given a node as the source. We study exhaustively all graphs of a given size, so do not restrict ourselves to certain generative models for graphs, nor to graph data sets. Due to the large number of possible nonisomorphic graphs of a fixed size, we are limited to ten-node graphs. We find that combinations of two or more centralities are predictive (R2 scores of 0.91 or higher) even for the most difficult parameter values of the epidemic simulation. Typically, these successful combinations include one normalized spectral centrality (such as PageRank or Katz centrality) and one measure that is sensitive to the number of edges in the graph.

AB - Identifying important nodes for disease spreading is a central topic in network epidemiology. We investigate how well the position of a node, characterized by standard network measures, can predict its epidemiological importance in any graph of a given number of nodes. This is in contrast to other studies that deal with the easier prediction problem of ranking nodes by their epidemic importance in given graphs. As a benchmark for epidemic importance, we calculate the exact expected outbreak size given a node as the source. We study exhaustively all graphs of a given size, so do not restrict ourselves to certain generative models for graphs, nor to graph data sets. Due to the large number of possible nonisomorphic graphs of a fixed size, we are limited to ten-node graphs. We find that combinations of two or more centralities are predictive (R2 scores of 0.91 or higher) even for the most difficult parameter values of the epidemic simulation. Typically, these successful combinations include one normalized spectral centrality (such as PageRank or Katz centrality) and one measure that is sensitive to the number of edges in the graph.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089128733&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008052

DO - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008052

M3 - Article

C2 - 32697781

AN - SCOPUS:85089128733

VL - 16

SP - e1008052

JO - PLoS Computational Biology

JF - PLoS Computational Biology

SN - 1553-734X

IS - 7

M1 - e1008052

ER -