Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability

Pontus Johnson; Maria Eugenia Iacob; Margus Valja; Marten J. van Sinderen; Christer Magnusson; Tobias Ladhe

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-36796-0_11

Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability

Pontus Johnson, Maria Eugenia Iacob, Margus Valja, Marten J. van Sinderen, Christer Magnusson, Tobias Ladhe

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

369 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly manage uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered business collaboration. In many real collaboration projects today, uncertainty regarding the business’ present or future characteristics is so signi﬿cant that ignoring it becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the Predictive, Probabilistic Architecture Modeling Framework (P2AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about profitability risks. The P2AMF-based approach for profitability risk prediction is also based on the e3-value modeling language and on the Object Constraint Language (OCL). The paper introduces the prediction and modeling approach, and a supporting software tool. The use of the approach is illustrated by means of a case.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Enterprise interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013. Proceedings
Editors	Marten J. van Sinderen, P.H.W.M. Oude Luttighuis, Erwin Johan Albert Folmer, S. Bosems
Place of Publication	Heidelberg
Publisher	Springer
Pages	118-130
Number of pages	13
ISBN (Electronic)	978-3-642-36796-0
ISBN (Print)	978-3-642-36795-3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36796-0_11
Publication status	Published - Mar 2013
Event	Fifth International IFIP Working Conference on Enterprise Interoperability 2013 - Enschede, Netherlands Duration: 27 Mar 2013 → 28 Mar 2013 Conference number: 5

Publication series

Name	Lecture notes in business information processing
Publisher	Springer
Volume	144
ISSN (Print)	1865-1348

Conference

Conference	Fifth International IFIP Working Conference on Enterprise Interoperability 2013
Abbreviated title	IWEI 2013
Country/Territory	Netherlands
City	Enschede
Period	27/03/13 → 28/03/13

Keywords

METIS-300010
EWI-23701
SCS-Services
Value networks
Goal interoperability
Risk analysis
Probabilistic inference
IR-87444
Profitability

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Cite this

Johnson, P., Iacob, M. E., Valja, M., van Sinderen, M. J., Magnusson, C., & Ladhe, T. (2013). Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability. In M. J. van Sinderen, P. H. W. M. Oude Luttighuis, E. J. A. Folmer, & S. Bosems (Eds.), Enterprise interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013. Proceedings (pp. 118-130). (Lecture notes in business information processing; Vol. 144). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36796-0_11

Johnson, Pontus ; Iacob, Maria Eugenia ; Valja, Margus et al. / Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability. Enterprise interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013. Proceedings. editor / Marten J. van Sinderen ; P.H.W.M. Oude Luttighuis ; Erwin Johan Albert Folmer ; S. Bosems. Heidelberg : Springer, 2013. pp. 118-130 (Lecture notes in business information processing).

@inproceedings{43dbddfdd1ab45e3b1c39dcf003777ab,

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abstract = "In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly manage uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered business collaboration. In many real collaboration projects today, uncertainty regarding the business{\textquoteright} present or future characteristics is so signi﬿cant that ignoring it becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the Predictive, Probabilistic Architecture Modeling Framework (P2AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about profitability risks. The P2AMF-based approach for profitability risk prediction is also based on the e3-value modeling language and on the Object Constraint Language (OCL). The paper introduces the prediction and modeling approach, and a supporting software tool. The use of the approach is illustrated by means of a case.",

keywords = "METIS-300010, EWI-23701, SCS-Services, Value networks, Goal interoperability, Risk analysis, Probabilistic inference, IR-87444, Profitability",

author = "Pontus Johnson and Iacob, {Maria Eugenia} and Margus Valja and {van Sinderen}, {Marten J.} and Christer Magnusson and Tobias Ladhe",

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booktitle = "Enterprise interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013. Proceedings",

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note = "Fifth International IFIP Working Conference on Enterprise Interoperability 2013, IWEI 2013 ; Conference date: 27-03-2013 Through 28-03-2013",

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Johnson, P, Iacob, ME, Valja, M, van Sinderen, MJ, Magnusson, C & Ladhe, T 2013, Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability. in MJ van Sinderen, PHWM Oude Luttighuis, EJA Folmer & S Bosems (eds), Enterprise interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013. Proceedings. Lecture notes in business information processing, vol. 144, Springer, Heidelberg, pp. 118-130, Fifth International IFIP Working Conference on Enterprise Interoperability 2013, Enschede, Netherlands, 27/03/13. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36796-0_11

Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability. / Johnson, Pontus; Iacob, Maria Eugenia; Valja, Margus et al.
Enterprise interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013. Proceedings. ed. / Marten J. van Sinderen; P.H.W.M. Oude Luttighuis; Erwin Johan Albert Folmer; S. Bosems. Heidelberg: Springer, 2013. p. 118-130 (Lecture notes in business information processing; Vol. 144).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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KW - Probabilistic inference

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Johnson P, Iacob ME, Valja M, van Sinderen MJ, Magnusson C, Ladhe T. Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability. In van Sinderen MJ, Oude Luttighuis PHWM, Folmer EJA, Bosems S, editors, Enterprise interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013. Proceedings. Heidelberg: Springer. 2013. p. 118-130. (Lecture notes in business information processing). doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-36796-0_11

Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability

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