Business model risk analysis: predicting the probability of business network profitability

Pontus Johnson, Maria Eugenia Iacob, Margus Valja, Marten J. van Sinderen, Christer Magnusson, Tobias Ladhe

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

    8 Citations (Scopus)
    255 Downloads (Pure)


    In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly manage uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered business collaboration. In many real collaboration projects today, uncertainty regarding the business’ present or future characteristics is so signi﬿cant that ignoring it becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the Predictive, Probabilistic Architecture Modeling Framework (P2AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about profitability risks. The P2AMF-based approach for profitability risk prediction is also based on the e3-value modeling language and on the Object Constraint Language (OCL). The paper introduces the prediction and modeling approach, and a supporting software tool. The use of the approach is illustrated by means of a case.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationEnterprise interoperability: 5th International IFIP Working Conference, IWEI 2013, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 27-28, 2013. Proceedings
    EditorsMarten J. van Sinderen, P.H.W.M. Oude Luttighuis, Erwin Johan Albert Folmer, S. Bosems
    Place of PublicationHeidelberg
    Number of pages13
    ISBN (Electronic)978-3-642-36796-0
    ISBN (Print)978-3-642-36795-3
    Publication statusPublished - Mar 2013
    EventFifth International IFIP Working Conference on Enterprise Interoperability 2013 - Enschede, Netherlands
    Duration: 27 Mar 201328 Mar 2013
    Conference number: 5

    Publication series

    NameLecture notes in business information processing
    ISSN (Print)1865-1348


    ConferenceFifth International IFIP Working Conference on Enterprise Interoperability 2013
    Abbreviated titleIWEI 2013


    • METIS-300010
    • EWI-23701
    • SCS-Services
    • Value networks
    • Goal interoperability
    • Risk analysis
    • Probabilistic inference
    • IR-87444
    • Profitability


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