Abstract
Attack trees are a well-known formalism for quantitative analysis of cyber attacks consisting of multiple steps and alternative paths. It is possible to derive properties of the overall attacks from properties of individual steps, such as cost for the attacker and probability of success. However, in existing formalisms, such properties are considered independent. For example, investing more in an attack step would not increase the probability of success. As this seems counterintuitive, we introduce a framework for reasoning about attack trees based on the notion of control strength, annotating nodes with a function from attacker investment to probability of success. Calculation rules on such trees are defined to enable analysis of optimal attacker investment. Our second result consists of the translation of optimal attacker investment into the associated adversarial risk, yielding what we call adversarial risk trees. The third result is the introduction of probabilistic attacker strate- gies, based on the fitness (utility) of available scenarios. Together these contributions improve the possibilities for using attack trees in adversarial risk analysis.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Data Privacy Management, Autonomous Spontaneous Security, and Security Assurance |
Subtitle of host publication | 9th International Workshop, DPM 2014, 7th International Workshop, SETOP 2014, and 3rd International Workshop, QASA 2014, Wroclaw, Poland, September 10-11, 2014. Revised Selected Papers |
Editors | Joaquin Garcia-Alfaro, Jordi Herrera-Joancomartí, Emil Lupu, Joachim Posegga |
Place of Publication | Berlin |
Publisher | Springer |
Pages | 201-215 |
Number of pages | 15 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 978-3-319-17016-9 |
ISBN (Print) | 978-3-319-17015-2 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 28 Mar 2015 |
Event | 3rd International Workshop on Quantitative Aspects in Security Assurance, QASA 2014 - Wraclaw, Poland Duration: 10 Sep 2014 → 11 Sep 2014 Conference number: 3 |
Publication series
Name | Lecture Notes in Computer Science |
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Publisher | Springer |
Volume | 8872 |
ISSN (Print) | 0302-9743 |
ISSN (Electronic) | 1611-3349 |
Workshop
Workshop | 3rd International Workshop on Quantitative Aspects in Security Assurance, QASA 2014 |
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Abbreviated title | QASA |
Country/Territory | Poland |
City | Wraclaw |
Period | 10/09/14 → 11/09/14 |
Keywords
- EC Grant Agreement nr.: FP7/318003
- SCS-cybersecurity
- EC Grant Agreement nr.: FP7/2007-2013
- Control strength
- Security metrics
- Adversarial risk analysis
- Attack trees
- Attacker models
- Fitness functions
- Simulation