Calibration and model performance decay in prediction of the effect of human intervention in river systems

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Abstract

River managers intervene in the natural system to increase flood safety, inland shipping or biodiversity by dredging, sediment nourishments or other river engineering works. Complex hydraulic numerical models often form the basis of such decision making. Experience has shown that parameters of these complex models require calibration to increase performance to acceptable levels. However, we hypothesize that implementation of interventions will generally lead to decay in model performance. We used an experimental set-up to quantify this decline in performance due to modelling of levee relocation. Results show performance decay for all calibrated parametersets and an increasing uncertainty as to the predicted effect of the intervention. In closing, we argue that continued model testing and a better understanding of the relationship between reference and modified models might lead to improved model use for river management. Such sustainable model management might be a necessity in sustainable river management.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRiver Flow - Proceedings of the International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, RIVER FLOW 2016
EditorsDan Hanes, Marcelo Garcia, George Constantinescu
PublisherCRC Press/Balkema
Pages2111-2117
Number of pages7
ISBN (Print)9781138029132
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2016
Event8th International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, RIVER FLOW 2016 - Saint Louis University, St. Louis, United States
Duration: 12 Jul 201615 Jul 2016
Conference number: 8
https://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/riverflow2016/

Conference

Conference8th International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, RIVER FLOW 2016
Abbreviated titleRiver Flow 2016
CountryUnited States
CitySt. Louis
Period12/07/1615/07/16
Internet address

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  • Cite this

    Berends, K. D., Warmink, J. J., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2016). Calibration and model performance decay in prediction of the effect of human intervention in river systems. In D. Hanes, M. Garcia, & G. Constantinescu (Eds.), River Flow - Proceedings of the International Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics, RIVER FLOW 2016 (pp. 2111-2117). CRC Press/Balkema.