Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks

Tatiana Filatova, Okmyung Bin

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)
7 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal changes in economic system are expected. This is especially relevant for urban development in coastal and delta areas where the probabilities of natural hazards such as catastrophic floods and hurricanes increase dramatically with climate change. New information about risks and micro-level interactions among economic agents alters individual location choices and impacts urban land markets dynamics potentially leading to the emergence of critical transitions from the bottom-up. We address this gap by incorporating adaptive expectations about land market dynamics into a spatial agent-based model of a coastal city. We build upon the previous research on agent-based modeling of urban land markets, and make a step forward towards empirical modeling by using actual hedonic study and spatial data for a coastal town in North Carolina, USA. Decentralized urban market with adaptive expectations about property prices in the areas with increasing hazard probabilities, may experience abrupt changes that shift the trends of spatial development and pricing.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Social Simulation
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association
EditorsBogumil Kaminski, Grzegorz Koloch
PublisherSpringer
Pages249-258
Number of pages386
ISBN (Print)978-3-642-39828-5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Event9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association, ESSA 2013 - Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland
Duration: 16 Sep 201320 Sep 2013
Conference number: 9

Publication series

NameAdvances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
PublisherSpringer
Number229

Conference

Conference9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association, ESSA 2013
Abbreviated titleESSA
CountryPoland
CityWarsaw
Period16/09/1320/09/13

Fingerprint

land market
housing market
climate
economics
modeling
climate change
urban system
economic system
natural hazard
econometrics
spatial data
hurricane
urban development
hazard
market

Keywords

  • Risk perception
  • Housing market
  • Flood risk
  • Land markets
  • Spatial econometric

Cite this

Filatova, T., & Bin, O. (2014). Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks. In B. Kaminski, & G. Koloch (Eds.), Advances in Social Simulation: Proceedings of the 9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association (pp. 249-258). (Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing; No. 229). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39829-2_22
Filatova, Tatiana ; Bin, Okmyung. / Changing Climate, Changing Behavior : Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks. Advances in Social Simulation: Proceedings of the 9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association. editor / Bogumil Kaminski ; Grzegorz Koloch. Springer, 2014. pp. 249-258 (Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing; 229).
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abstract = "Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal changes in economic system are expected. This is especially relevant for urban development in coastal and delta areas where the probabilities of natural hazards such as catastrophic floods and hurricanes increase dramatically with climate change. New information about risks and micro-level interactions among economic agents alters individual location choices and impacts urban land markets dynamics potentially leading to the emergence of critical transitions from the bottom-up. We address this gap by incorporating adaptive expectations about land market dynamics into a spatial agent-based model of a coastal city. We build upon the previous research on agent-based modeling of urban land markets, and make a step forward towards empirical modeling by using actual hedonic study and spatial data for a coastal town in North Carolina, USA. Decentralized urban market with adaptive expectations about property prices in the areas with increasing hazard probabilities, may experience abrupt changes that shift the trends of spatial development and pricing.",
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Filatova, T & Bin, O 2014, Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks. in B Kaminski & G Koloch (eds), Advances in Social Simulation: Proceedings of the 9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, no. 229, Springer, pp. 249-258, 9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association, ESSA 2013, Warsaw, Poland, 16/09/13. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39829-2_22

Changing Climate, Changing Behavior : Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks. / Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung.

Advances in Social Simulation: Proceedings of the 9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association. ed. / Bogumil Kaminski; Grzegorz Koloch. Springer, 2014. p. 249-258 (Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing; No. 229).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Bin, Okmyung

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N2 - Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal changes in economic system are expected. This is especially relevant for urban development in coastal and delta areas where the probabilities of natural hazards such as catastrophic floods and hurricanes increase dramatically with climate change. New information about risks and micro-level interactions among economic agents alters individual location choices and impacts urban land markets dynamics potentially leading to the emergence of critical transitions from the bottom-up. We address this gap by incorporating adaptive expectations about land market dynamics into a spatial agent-based model of a coastal city. We build upon the previous research on agent-based modeling of urban land markets, and make a step forward towards empirical modeling by using actual hedonic study and spatial data for a coastal town in North Carolina, USA. Decentralized urban market with adaptive expectations about property prices in the areas with increasing hazard probabilities, may experience abrupt changes that shift the trends of spatial development and pricing.

AB - Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal changes in economic system are expected. This is especially relevant for urban development in coastal and delta areas where the probabilities of natural hazards such as catastrophic floods and hurricanes increase dramatically with climate change. New information about risks and micro-level interactions among economic agents alters individual location choices and impacts urban land markets dynamics potentially leading to the emergence of critical transitions from the bottom-up. We address this gap by incorporating adaptive expectations about land market dynamics into a spatial agent-based model of a coastal city. We build upon the previous research on agent-based modeling of urban land markets, and make a step forward towards empirical modeling by using actual hedonic study and spatial data for a coastal town in North Carolina, USA. Decentralized urban market with adaptive expectations about property prices in the areas with increasing hazard probabilities, may experience abrupt changes that shift the trends of spatial development and pricing.

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M3 - Conference contribution

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Filatova T, Bin O. Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks. In Kaminski B, Koloch G, editors, Advances in Social Simulation: Proceedings of the 9th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association. Springer. 2014. p. 249-258. (Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing; 229). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39829-2_22