Changing life courses and new social risks: The case of old age persons

Old age pensions are one of the keystones of traditional solidaristic welfare states. They are based on systematic risk assessments, starting from the assumption of the typical standardized life course. From this perspective “ageing” is a predictable income risk, and one that has been managed by the traditional welfare state in applying actuarial principles and collectively shared entitlements. In this contribution we join the expectation in the contemporary welfare state debate that the traditional solidaristic welfare state is changing fundamentally. On the one side the assumed standardized life course is changing rapidly. On the other side the existing welfare state institutions and policies are changing at the same time. Together, these lead to the new social risk of an increasing “unpredictability” of the future for many individuals and for vulnerable groups in particular. We discuss the case of old age pensions and assess the impact on future income predictability that results from the destabilization of life courses. This argument will be grounded in a detailed empirical analysis of risk biographies and their effect on the old age pension income in the Netherlands, and a comparative assessment of the way the Dutch pension system responds to the new social risk of unpredictability.