Climate change adaptation and roads: dutch case study of cost impacts at the organization level

This paper presents a cost analysis and adaptation evaluation of the climate change impacts on the highway network of the Netherlands. Impact analysis is a growing trend in climate change adaptation research but there is a lack of detailed quantitative modeling. Results are often provided at the national or international scale for economic and policy support. Our work modifies an existing cost modeling methodology, the Infrastructure Planning Support System, and is intended to produce results that are more detailed and pertinent at the organizational level. The two main objectives are: 1) refining the stressor-response relationships and cost of adaptation calculation between climate change and porous asphalt and 2) increase the spatial granularity of analysis through use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). As a case study, climate change impacts are investigated for the Dutch highway network through collaboration with Rijkswaterstaat (the Dutch national highway organization). Costs are then calculated for alternate adaptation strategies through 2100. Potential vulnerabilities and increased operational costs for porous asphalt are of particular concern in the Netherlands, as the large majority of Dutch roads are paved with porous asphalt. Initial results reveal regional variability but highlight the overall trend that proactive adaptation is financially advantageous, in some cases producing savings of up to €90 million annually. Also, the results reveal a trend in which regional climate models predict costs that are typically higher than those calculated using global models.