This paper presents a cost analysis and adaptation evaluation of the climate change impacts on the highway network of the Netherlands. Impact analysis is a growing trend in climate change adaptation research but there is a lack of detailed quantitative modeling. Results are often provided at the national or international scale for economic and policy support. Our work modifies an existing cost modeling methodology, the Infrastructure Planning Support System, and is intended to produce results that are more detailed and pertinent at the organizational level. The two main objectives are: 1) refining the stressor-response relationships and cost of adaptation calculation between climate change and porous asphalt and 2) increase the spatial granularity of analysis through use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). As a case study, climate change impacts are investigated for the Dutch highway network through collaboration with Rijkswaterstaat (the Dutch national highway organization). Costs are then calculated for alternate adaptation strategies through 2100. Potential vulnerabilities and increased operational costs for porous asphalt are of particular concern in the Netherlands, as the large majority of Dutch roads are paved with porous asphalt. Initial results reveal regional variability but highlight the overall trend that proactive adaptation is financially advantageous, in some cases producing savings of up to €90 million annually. Also, the results reveal a trend in which regional climate models predict costs that are typically higher than those calculated using global models.
|Title of host publication||Proceedings of the Engineering Project Organization (EPOC 2013)|
|Subtitle of host publication||9-11 July 2013, Winter Park, Colorado|
|Editors||Patricia Carrillo, Paul Chinowsky|
|Place of Publication||Winterpark, CO, USA|
|Number of pages||14|
|Publication status||Published - 9 Jul 2013|
|Event||Engineering Project Organization Conference 2013 - Winter Park, United States|
Duration: 9 Jul 2013 → 11 Jul 2013
|Name||Working Paper Proceedings|
|Conference||Engineering Project Organization Conference 2013|
|Abbreviated title||EPOC 2013|
|Period||9/07/13 → 11/07/13|
Kwiatkowski, K. P., Stipanovic Oslakovic, I., ter Maat, H. W., Hartmann, A., Chinowsky, P., & Dewulf, G. P. M. R. (2013). Climate change adaptation and roads: dutch case study of cost impacts at the organization level. In P. Carrillo, & P. Chinowsky (Eds.), Proceedings of the Engineering Project Organization (EPOC 2013): 9-11 July 2013, Winter Park, Colorado (Working Paper Proceedings; Vol. 2013). Winterpark, CO, USA: EPOS.