Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections

Nikolay I. Shiklomanov, Dmitry A. Streletskiy, Timothy B. Swales, Vasily A. Kokorev

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost-affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM-produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)125-142
Number of pages18
JournalGeographical review
Volume107
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2017
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

permafrost
projection
general circulation model
climate change
infrastructure
climate
Arctic
integrity
twenty first century
climate effect
uncertainty
climate modeling
mitigation
warming
degradation
analysis

Keywords

  • Climate Change
  • Permafrost Infrastructure
  • Russian Arctic Cities
  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE

Cite this

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title = "Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections",
abstract = "One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost-affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25{\%}) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM-produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities.",
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Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions : Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections. / Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.; Streletskiy, Dmitry A.; Swales, Timothy B.; Kokorev, Vasily A.

In: Geographical review, Vol. 107, No. 1, 01.01.2017, p. 125-142.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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