Climate change driven morphological behaviour at small tidal inlet systems

A process based coastal morphodynamic model (Delft3D) is applied to 3 selected small tidal inlet (STI)/lagoon systems to investigate the potential range of climate change (CC) impacts on inlet stability. Results show that CC driven variations in system forcing are likely having varying levels of impact on inlet stability depending on forcing and inlet characteristics. Under some extreme CC scenarios, inlet stability can be affected significantly leading to the change of general inlet behavior (e.g. migrating to non-migrating). CC driven variations in littoral drift appear to be more relevant for future changes in inlet stability condition, rather than sea level rise (SLR) as is commonly believed. Results demonstrate that a process based coastal morphodynamic model can be strategically used to gain qualitative insights into the potential CC impacts at STI's. Snapshot simulations (1-2 year long) can provide very useful information on how CC may affect the stability of STI's.