Combining integrated river modelling and agent based social simulation for river management; The case study of the Grensmaas project

In this paper we present a coupled Integrated River Model – Agent Based Social Simulation model (IRM-ABSS) for river management. The models represent the case of the ongoing river engineering project “Grensmaas”. In the ABSS model stakeholders are represented as computer agents negotiating a river management strategy. Their negotiating behaviour is derived from the so-called Theory of Reasoned Action. The Integrated River Model represents stakeholder knowledge by describing possible long-term impacts of river management options such as broadening, floodplain lowering, and dike building. The computer agents are allowed to specify values for a set of ‘uncertain parameters’ in the IRM for representing subjective stakeholder knowledge. We show how the coupled model framework can aid to assess the robustness of river management strategies, both with respect to environmental uncertainty and societal support.