TY - JOUR
T1 - Compound events in Germany in 2018
T2 - drivers and case studies
AU - Xoplaki, Elena
AU - Ellsäßer, Florian Johannes
AU - Grieger, Jens
AU - Nissen, Katrin
AU - Pinto, Joaquim
AU - Augenstein, Markus
AU - Chen, Ting-Chen
AU - Feldmann, Hendrik
AU - Friedrichs, Petra
AU - Gliksman, Daniel
AU - Goulier, Laura
AU - Haustein, Karsten
AU - Heinke, Jens
AU - Jach, Lisa
AU - Knutsen, Florian
AU - Kollet, Stefan
AU - Luterbacher, Jürg
AU - Luther, Niklas
AU - Mohr, Susanna
AU - Mudersbach, Christoph
AU - Müller, Christoph
AU - Rousi, Efi
AU - Simon, Felix
AU - Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura
AU - Szemkus, Svenja
AU - Vallejo-Bernal, Sara
AU - Vlachopoulos, Odysseas
AU - Wolf, Frederik
PY - 2025/2/7
Y1 - 2025/2/7
N2 - Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.
AB - Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.
KW - ITC-HYBRID
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85218100882&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025
DO - 10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025
M3 - Article
SN - 2195-9269
VL - 25
SP - 541
EP - 564
JO - Natural hazards and earth systems sciences discussions
JF - Natural hazards and earth systems sciences discussions
IS - 2
M1 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025
ER -