Data driven modelling of a complex mining subsidence process

Ilona Kemeling*, Ian M. Scott, David N. Petley, Nick J. Rosser, Robert J. Allison, Antony J. Long, A. Stein

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

The prediction of subsidence rates and magnitudes is a challenging problem due to the range of complex variables that combine to determine the displacement of the surface. Many subsidence prediction models utilise an approach that involves detailed modelling of mechanical behaviour of strata transferring strain from the underground void to the surface. Such approaches are typically calibrated using subsidence records. Even after this calibration they generally struggle to predict accurately and reliably actual subsidence in virgin terrain. In this paper a model is presented based on an alternative data-driven approach using statistical techniques. This approach utilises past patterns of monitored subsidence to predict future movements at any point in space and time as a consequence of mining activities. Testing of the model proved that 89% of the estimations are between -1.65 mm/year and +1.40 mm/year of the actual subsidence value and 51% of the estimations are between -0.6 mm/year and 0.4 mm/year of the actual subsidence value.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRemote Sensing for Environmental Monitoring, GIS Applications, and Geology IV
EditorsM. Ehlers, F. Posa
Pages288-298
Number of pages11
Volume5574
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2004
Externally publishedYes
Event2004 Remote Sensing for Environmental Monitoring, GIS Applications, and Geology IV - Maspalomas, Spain
Duration: 13 Sep 200416 Sep 2004
Conference number: 4

Publication series

NameProceedings of SPIE - the international society for optical engineering
PublisherSPIE
ISSN (Print)0277-786X

Conference

Conference2004 Remote Sensing for Environmental Monitoring, GIS Applications, and Geology IV
CountrySpain
CityMaspalomas
Period13/09/0416/09/04

Keywords

  • Case study
  • Data quality
  • Deformation
  • Modelling
  • Monitoring
  • Potash mine
  • Subsidence

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