Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach

Anouk Bomers, Ralph Mathias Johannes Schielen, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher

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    Abstract

    Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of measured discharges or weather conditions. To decrease the confidence intervals, an efficient bootstrap method is developed in this study. The Rhine river delta is considered as a case study. We use a hydraulic model to normalize historic flood events for anthropogenic and natural changes in the river system. As a result, the data set of measured discharges could be extended by approximately 600 years. The study shows that historic flood events decrease the confidence interval of the flood frequency curve significantly, specifically in the range of large floods. This even applies if the maximum discharges of these historic flood events are highly uncertain themselves.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1895-1908
    Number of pages14
    JournalNatural hazards and earth system sciences
    Volume19
    Issue number8
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 29 Aug 2019

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