Deep graphical regression for jointly moderate and extreme Australian wildfires

Daniela Cisneros, Jordan Richards*, Ashok Dahal, Luigi Lombardo, Raphaël Huser

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
18 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Recent wildfires in Australia have led to considerable economic loss and property destruction, and there is increasing concern that climate change may exacerbate their intensity, duration, and frequency. Hazard quantification for extreme wildfires is an important component of wildfire management, as it facilitates efficient resource distribution, adverse effect mitigation, and recovery efforts. However, although extreme wildfires are typically the most impactful, both small and moderate fires can still be devastating to local communities and ecosystems. Therefore, it is imperative to develop robust statistical methods to reliably model the full distribution of wildfire spread. We do so for a novel dataset of Australian wildfires from 1999 to 2019, and analyse monthly spread over areas approximately corresponding to Statistical Areas Level 1 and 2 (SA1/SA2) regions. Given the complex nature of wildfire ignition and spread, we exploit recent advances in statistical deep learning and extreme value theory to construct a parametric regression model using graph convolutional neural networks and the extended generalised Pareto distribution, which allows us to model wildfire spread observed on an irregular spatial domain. We highlight the efficacy of our newly proposed model and perform a wildfire hazard assessment for Australia and population-dense communities, namely Tasmania, Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100811
JournalSpatial statistics
Volume59
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2024

Keywords

  • Extended generalised pareto distribution
  • Extreme value theory
  • Graph convolutional neural networks
  • Parametric regression
  • Wildfire burnt area
  • Wildfire spread
  • ITC-HYBRID
  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE

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