Design of hydrogen supply chains under demand uncertainty - A case study of passenger transport in Germany

Anton Ochoa Bique*, Leonardo K.K. Maia, Ignacio E. Grossmann, Edwin Zondervan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)


A strategy for the design of a hydrogen supply chain (HSC) network in Germany incorporating the uncertainty in the hydrogen demand is proposed. Based on univariate sensitivity analysis, uncertainty in hydrogen demand has a very strong impact on the overall system costs. Therefore we consider a scenario tree for a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model that incorporates the uncertainty in the hydrogen demand. The model consists of two configurations, which are analyzed and compared to each other according to production types: water electrolysis versus steam methane reforming. Each configuration has a cost minimization target. The concept of value of stochastic solution (VSS) is used to evaluate the stochastic optimization results and compare them to their deterministic counterpart. The VSS of each configuration shows significant benefits of a stochastic optimization approach for the model presented in this study, corresponding up to 26% of infrastructure investments savings.

Original languageEnglish
JournalPhysical Sciences Reviews
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 23 Aug 2021
Externally publishedYes


  • fuel infrastructures
  • hydrogen supply chain design
  • mixed integer linear programming
  • stochastic optimization
  • water electrolysis technology
  • NLA


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