Developing a framework to quantify potential Sea level rise-driven environmental losses: A case study in Semarang coastal area, Indonesia

Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar (Corresponding Author), Tatiana Filatova, Ifdlol Syukri, Ali Dastgheib, Roshanka Ranasinghe

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
29 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Climate change triggers major alterations to coastal zones worldwide. Quantification of these adverse impacts to coastal ecosystems is often done on a coarse scale of global regions. Consistent local scale estimates of physical impacts on ecosystems and monetary assessment of associated losses are scarce, especially in developing countries. With aim of facilitating such assessment, which is increasingly required, here we propose a coherent three-step framework and subsequently apply it to quantify potential sea level rise-driven alterations in the monetary value of ecosystem services in the coastal area of Semarang in Indonesia. Within this framework, we (1) quantify the present value of coastal ecosystem services by using economic valuation techniques; (2) identify the potential impacts of relative sea level rise (RSLR)-induced inundation on ecosystem services (for the year 2100 inundation scenarios); and (3) monetize these impacts by developing a novel scenario-based approach. The results show that full inundation (scenario A with 4 m RSLR) poses a median loss of 90% (US$ 2.8 – 3.5) and 25% (US$ 90 – 113) to the present art and fishery values per hectare, while amenity service is expected to lose upto 50% (US$ 3700 – 5400) of its present value. Additionally, recreation value of the coastal ecosystems in three selected sites (Marina and Maron beaches, and Plumbon estuary) will decrease by 70% (US$ 15,460 – 19,820) per hectare. However, in scenario B (RSLR of 1.1 m) with a 50% inundated area, these losses are estimated approximately 40% less than for scenario A. It is expected that researchers and policy makers may apply this approach in their areas of interest to gain a better understanding of the likely costs of sea level rise-driven environmental damages along coasts, ultimately contributing to the sustainable management of coastal environment in Indonesia and possibly in other developing countries.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)216-230
Number of pages15
JournalEnvironmental science & policy
Volume89
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2018

Fingerprint

Indonesia
scenario
ecosystem service
coastal zone
present
developing world
developing country
amenity
environmental damage
marina
quantification
recreation
valuation
fishery
art
Values
beach
climate change
estuary
loss

Keywords

  • UT-Hybrid-D
  • Coastal ecosystems
  • Economic valuation
  • Environmental damage
  • Semarang
  • Climate change

Cite this

@article{4af787714d674a0bb1aff983d55aa75d,
title = "Developing a framework to quantify potential Sea level rise-driven environmental losses: A case study in Semarang coastal area, Indonesia",
abstract = "Climate change triggers major alterations to coastal zones worldwide. Quantification of these adverse impacts to coastal ecosystems is often done on a coarse scale of global regions. Consistent local scale estimates of physical impacts on ecosystems and monetary assessment of associated losses are scarce, especially in developing countries. With aim of facilitating such assessment, which is increasingly required, here we propose a coherent three-step framework and subsequently apply it to quantify potential sea level rise-driven alterations in the monetary value of ecosystem services in the coastal area of Semarang in Indonesia. Within this framework, we (1) quantify the present value of coastal ecosystem services by using economic valuation techniques; (2) identify the potential impacts of relative sea level rise (RSLR)-induced inundation on ecosystem services (for the year 2100 inundation scenarios); and (3) monetize these impacts by developing a novel scenario-based approach. The results show that full inundation (scenario A with 4 m RSLR) poses a median loss of 90{\%} (US$ 2.8 – 3.5) and 25{\%} (US$ 90 – 113) to the present art and fishery values per hectare, while amenity service is expected to lose upto 50{\%} (US$ 3700 – 5400) of its present value. Additionally, recreation value of the coastal ecosystems in three selected sites (Marina and Maron beaches, and Plumbon estuary) will decrease by 70{\%} (US$ 15,460 – 19,820) per hectare. However, in scenario B (RSLR of 1.1 m) with a 50{\%} inundated area, these losses are estimated approximately 40{\%} less than for scenario A. It is expected that researchers and policy makers may apply this approach in their areas of interest to gain a better understanding of the likely costs of sea level rise-driven environmental damages along coasts, ultimately contributing to the sustainable management of coastal environment in Indonesia and possibly in other developing countries.",
keywords = "UT-Hybrid-D, Coastal ecosystems, Economic valuation, Environmental damage, Semarang, Climate change",
author = "Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar and Tatiana Filatova and Ifdlol Syukri and Ali Dastgheib and Roshanka Ranasinghe",
note = "Elsevier deal",
year = "2018",
month = "11",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.019",
language = "English",
volume = "89",
pages = "216--230",
journal = "Environmental science & policy",
issn = "1462-9011",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Developing a framework to quantify potential Sea level rise-driven environmental losses

T2 - A case study in Semarang coastal area, Indonesia

AU - Mehvar, Seyedabdolhossein

AU - Filatova, Tatiana

AU - Syukri, Ifdlol

AU - Dastgheib, Ali

AU - Ranasinghe, Roshanka

N1 - Elsevier deal

PY - 2018/11/1

Y1 - 2018/11/1

N2 - Climate change triggers major alterations to coastal zones worldwide. Quantification of these adverse impacts to coastal ecosystems is often done on a coarse scale of global regions. Consistent local scale estimates of physical impacts on ecosystems and monetary assessment of associated losses are scarce, especially in developing countries. With aim of facilitating such assessment, which is increasingly required, here we propose a coherent three-step framework and subsequently apply it to quantify potential sea level rise-driven alterations in the monetary value of ecosystem services in the coastal area of Semarang in Indonesia. Within this framework, we (1) quantify the present value of coastal ecosystem services by using economic valuation techniques; (2) identify the potential impacts of relative sea level rise (RSLR)-induced inundation on ecosystem services (for the year 2100 inundation scenarios); and (3) monetize these impacts by developing a novel scenario-based approach. The results show that full inundation (scenario A with 4 m RSLR) poses a median loss of 90% (US$ 2.8 – 3.5) and 25% (US$ 90 – 113) to the present art and fishery values per hectare, while amenity service is expected to lose upto 50% (US$ 3700 – 5400) of its present value. Additionally, recreation value of the coastal ecosystems in three selected sites (Marina and Maron beaches, and Plumbon estuary) will decrease by 70% (US$ 15,460 – 19,820) per hectare. However, in scenario B (RSLR of 1.1 m) with a 50% inundated area, these losses are estimated approximately 40% less than for scenario A. It is expected that researchers and policy makers may apply this approach in their areas of interest to gain a better understanding of the likely costs of sea level rise-driven environmental damages along coasts, ultimately contributing to the sustainable management of coastal environment in Indonesia and possibly in other developing countries.

AB - Climate change triggers major alterations to coastal zones worldwide. Quantification of these adverse impacts to coastal ecosystems is often done on a coarse scale of global regions. Consistent local scale estimates of physical impacts on ecosystems and monetary assessment of associated losses are scarce, especially in developing countries. With aim of facilitating such assessment, which is increasingly required, here we propose a coherent three-step framework and subsequently apply it to quantify potential sea level rise-driven alterations in the monetary value of ecosystem services in the coastal area of Semarang in Indonesia. Within this framework, we (1) quantify the present value of coastal ecosystem services by using economic valuation techniques; (2) identify the potential impacts of relative sea level rise (RSLR)-induced inundation on ecosystem services (for the year 2100 inundation scenarios); and (3) monetize these impacts by developing a novel scenario-based approach. The results show that full inundation (scenario A with 4 m RSLR) poses a median loss of 90% (US$ 2.8 – 3.5) and 25% (US$ 90 – 113) to the present art and fishery values per hectare, while amenity service is expected to lose upto 50% (US$ 3700 – 5400) of its present value. Additionally, recreation value of the coastal ecosystems in three selected sites (Marina and Maron beaches, and Plumbon estuary) will decrease by 70% (US$ 15,460 – 19,820) per hectare. However, in scenario B (RSLR of 1.1 m) with a 50% inundated area, these losses are estimated approximately 40% less than for scenario A. It is expected that researchers and policy makers may apply this approach in their areas of interest to gain a better understanding of the likely costs of sea level rise-driven environmental damages along coasts, ultimately contributing to the sustainable management of coastal environment in Indonesia and possibly in other developing countries.

KW - UT-Hybrid-D

KW - Coastal ecosystems

KW - Economic valuation

KW - Environmental damage

KW - Semarang

KW - Climate change

U2 - 10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.019

DO - 10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.019

M3 - Article

VL - 89

SP - 216

EP - 230

JO - Environmental science & policy

JF - Environmental science & policy

SN - 1462-9011

ER -