Drawing the line on coastline recession risk

R. Jongejan, Ranasinghe W M R J B Ranasinghe, D. Wainwright, D.P. Callaghan, J. Reyns

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)


Climate change and the growth of coastal communities will significantly increase the socio-economic risks associated with coastline recession (i.e. the net long term landward movement of the coastline). Coastal setback lines are a commonly adopted management/planning tool to mitigate these risks. While it is widely recognized that planning decisions should be risk-informed, setback lines are presently determined using deterministic methods that cannot easily be related to considerations regarding the tolerability of risks. Here, we present a model for quantifying the risks posed by coastline recession and show how it can be used for deriving economically optimal setback lines. A demonstration at Narrabeen beach, Sydney, Australia illustrates that the proposed risk-informed approach to coastal zone management can significantly improve the transparency and efficiency of land-use planning decisions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)87-94
JournalOcean & coastal management
Publication statusPublished - 2016


  • METIS-317626
  • IR-101119


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