Early warning and early action in conflict-affected settings

People affected by armed conflict are particularly vulnerable to climate-related hazards due to their heightened vulnerability. Given the likely negative impacts of a changing climate on conflict-affected populations, partly due to limited capacities for adaptation, Early Warning and Early Action (EWEA) is especially important for saving lives and livelihoods in these contexts. Nevertheless, until a few years ago, this topic received little attention, both in research and policy.
To contribute to filling this gap, this thesis aims to answer the overarching question, “How can Early Warning and Early Action operate and be improved in situations of armed conflict?”. We used five key elements as a thematic framework: 1. understanding risk, 2. forecasting availability and monitoring, 3. communication and dissemination, 4. early action planning, and 5. financing systems. The dominant focus of the research is on understanding risks and forecasting.
This PhD started at a moment in time when little research existed on this topic. Over the past five years, we have contributed to a better understanding of key thematic areas that are crucial for producing warnings in conflict-affected contexts. We demonstrated the potential role of global forecast models to be used in conflict settings, we highlighted the significant research gaps across five elements of EWEA, we explored the opportunities and gaps of open-source mapping data, and we provided robust evidence about the impacts of armed conflict on hydrometeorological infrastructure. Finally, based on our evidence and the gaps identified in this thesis, we provided evidence-based research ideas that we hope will inspire future studies on early warning systems, disasters and conflicts.