Ecological niche modeling of risk factors for H7N9 human infection in China

M. Xu, C. Cao, Q Li, Peng Jia, J. Zhao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.
Original languageEnglish
Article number600
Number of pages12
JournalInternational journal of environmental research and public health
Volume13
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

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China
Poultry
Population Density
Infection
H7N9 Subtype Influenza A Virus
Meteorological Concepts
Geographic Information Systems
Wetlands
Environmental Monitoring
Influenza A virus
Humidity
Rivers
Area Under Curve
Birds
Temperature
Research
Farms

Keywords

  • METIS-319878
  • ITC-GOLD

Cite this

@article{954d1fc064c049c2abd9b3a03faa8d15,
title = "Ecological niche modeling of risk factors for H7N9 human infection in China",
abstract = "China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9{\%}, 17.7{\%} and 17.7{\%}, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.",
keywords = "METIS-319878, ITC-GOLD",
author = "M. Xu and C. Cao and Q Li and Peng Jia and J. Zhao",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.3390/ijerph13060600",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "International journal of environmental research and public health",
issn = "1661-7827",
publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute",
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}

Ecological niche modeling of risk factors for H7N9 human infection in China. / Xu, M.; Cao, C.; Li, Q; Jia, Peng; Zhao, J.

In: International journal of environmental research and public health, Vol. 13, No. 6, 600, 2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ecological niche modeling of risk factors for H7N9 human infection in China

AU - Xu, M.

AU - Cao, C.

AU - Li, Q

AU - Jia, Peng

AU - Zhao, J.

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

AB - China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9) virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecological niche modeling (ENM), this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM) that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data). The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

KW - METIS-319878

KW - ITC-GOLD

U2 - 10.3390/ijerph13060600

DO - 10.3390/ijerph13060600

M3 - Article

VL - 13

JO - International journal of environmental research and public health

JF - International journal of environmental research and public health

SN - 1661-7827

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