Economic losses due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Ethiopian cattle

Ethiopia’s cattle population is among the largest in Africa and is burdened by frequent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks each year. FMD is caused by several distinct and highly contagious viral strains that can result in acute disease in cattle, causing losses in productivity and impeding international trade. This economic simulation study considered four main sources of losses due to FMD in cattle: reduced milk yield, draft power yield, fertility, and increased mortality. Economic losses were estimated per case across age-sex strata in 89 Ethiopian administrative zones for the years 2010 to 2021 using a wide range of data to estimate distributions for 30 input variables in a series of Monte Carlo simulations. It was estimated that an average case of FMD in Ethiopian cattle results in losses of Ethiopian birr (ETB) 480 (ETB 300 – ETB 710), equivalent to losses of US dollars (USD) 11 (USD 7 – USD 16) in 2021 prices. Losses resulting from an average outbreak were estimated to be ETB 100,000 (ETB 60,000 – ETB 150,000), equivalent to losses of USD 2,300 (USD 1,400 – USD 3,300). National annual losses were estimated to be ETB 41 Mil. (ETB 9 Mil. – ETB 99 Mil.), equivalent to losses of USD 0.9 Mil. (USD 0.2 Mil. – USD 2.3 Mil.). At the national level, these losses were significantly less than those previously estimated in the literature, highlighting the complex and problematic nature of estimating the economic burden of FMD in extensive livestock systems. Sensitivity analyses suggested that losses per case would be far greater in intensive systems, and that certainty surrounding incidence rates is paramount to the formulation of economically sound animal health policy in regions with endemic FMD.