TY - JOUR
T1 - Embracing ambiguity in climate change adaptation for more effective responses to new uncertain shorescapes conditions
AU - Brugnach, Marcela
AU - Hoek, Ronald van den
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank the foundation EcoShape – responsible for the execution of the Dutch national research programme ‘Building with Nature’ – for initially funding this research, and to Theo Vulink for their participation in the interviews. We also would like to express our gratitude to Prof. A.Y. Hoekstra, for his input and support in earlier stages of this research. Brugnach´s contribution was partially supported by Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2023‐2026 (Ref. CEX2021‐001201‐M ), funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023
PY - 2023/6
Y1 - 2023/6
N2 - Nature Based Solutions (NbS) are mainstreamed as an innovative and adequate approach to climate change. Combining natural dynamics and materials with technical knowledge, NbS are seen as a promising venue for coastal adaptation. However, little still is known about the role that the many uncertainties associated with such projects play in the effectiveness of these solutions, and about how to cope with these uncertainties, considering both positive and negative impacts that NbS may have for our society. Here, we investigate, if and how, managing uncertainties via the cascades of interrelated uncertainties conceptual framework improves the governance capacity for implementing NbS coastal management projects. To this end, we conduct an ex-post analysis of the uncertainties in two NbS study cases (Sand Engine and Safety Buffer Oyster Dam BwN projects in The Netherlands), critically analyzing through the conceptual framework, how uncertainties were addressed and proposing better fit supporting alternatives. Our results indicate major benefits for uncertainty management, supporting project development and implementation: generating more flexibility in managing under unknown conditions, being able to anticipate conflict and maladaptations, providing opportunities of creating new supporting relationships and alternative solutions.
AB - Nature Based Solutions (NbS) are mainstreamed as an innovative and adequate approach to climate change. Combining natural dynamics and materials with technical knowledge, NbS are seen as a promising venue for coastal adaptation. However, little still is known about the role that the many uncertainties associated with such projects play in the effectiveness of these solutions, and about how to cope with these uncertainties, considering both positive and negative impacts that NbS may have for our society. Here, we investigate, if and how, managing uncertainties via the cascades of interrelated uncertainties conceptual framework improves the governance capacity for implementing NbS coastal management projects. To this end, we conduct an ex-post analysis of the uncertainties in two NbS study cases (Sand Engine and Safety Buffer Oyster Dam BwN projects in The Netherlands), critically analyzing through the conceptual framework, how uncertainties were addressed and proposing better fit supporting alternatives. Our results indicate major benefits for uncertainty management, supporting project development and implementation: generating more flexibility in managing under unknown conditions, being able to anticipate conflict and maladaptations, providing opportunities of creating new supporting relationships and alternative solutions.
KW - Ambiguity
KW - Building with nature
KW - Climate change adaptation
KW - Coastal management
KW - Maladaptation
KW - Nature based solutions
KW - Uncertainty
KW - Uncertainty cascades
KW - UT-Hybrid-D
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85153479774&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105626
DO - 10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105626
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85153479774
SN - 0308-597X
VL - 152
JO - Marine policy
JF - Marine policy
M1 - 105626
ER -
