Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application

Fakhereh Alidoost, Zhongbo Su, A. Stein

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

20 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Climate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions of the crop-related variables given extremes of air temperature and precipitation are estimated. We used potatoes in the Netherlands as a case study. Weather data were obtained from 33 weather stations and ECMWF ERA-interim archive during the period 1980–2017. A joint behavior analysis predicted the yield, the production and the price with the relative mean absolute error equal to 5.4%, 3.6%, and 27.9%, respectively. The study showed that copulas adequately describe the multivariate dependences. Those in turn are able to quantify the impact of climate extremes, including their uncertainties.
Original languageEnglish
Article number100227
Pages (from-to)1-9
Number of pages9
JournalWeather and climate extremes
Volume26
Early online date18 Sep 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2019

Fingerprint

crop yield
climate
crop
behavior analysis
weather station
food security
potato
Netherlands
air temperature
agriculture
air
uncertainty
food
weather
anomaly
price
distribution
effect
analysis
index

Keywords

  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
  • ITC-GOLD

Cite this

@article{f7b7941d951e431d913a90d31673cab6,
title = "Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application",
abstract = "Climate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions of the crop-related variables given extremes of air temperature and precipitation are estimated. We used potatoes in the Netherlands as a case study. Weather data were obtained from 33 weather stations and ECMWF ERA-interim archive during the period 1980–2017. A joint behavior analysis predicted the yield, the production and the price with the relative mean absolute error equal to 5.4{\%}, 3.6{\%}, and 27.9{\%}, respectively. The study showed that copulas adequately describe the multivariate dependences. Those in turn are able to quantify the impact of climate extremes, including their uncertainties.",
keywords = "ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, ITC-GOLD",
author = "Fakhereh Alidoost and Zhongbo Su and A. Stein",
year = "2019",
month = "12",
doi = "10.1016/j.wace.2019.100227",
language = "English",
volume = "26",
pages = "1--9",
journal = "Weather and climate extremes",
issn = "2212-0947",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions : A new copula application. / Alidoost, Fakhereh; Su, Zhongbo; Stein, A.

In: Weather and climate extremes, Vol. 26, 100227, 12.2019, p. 1-9.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions

T2 - A new copula application

AU - Alidoost, Fakhereh

AU - Su, Zhongbo

AU - Stein, A.

PY - 2019/12

Y1 - 2019/12

N2 - Climate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions of the crop-related variables given extremes of air temperature and precipitation are estimated. We used potatoes in the Netherlands as a case study. Weather data were obtained from 33 weather stations and ECMWF ERA-interim archive during the period 1980–2017. A joint behavior analysis predicted the yield, the production and the price with the relative mean absolute error equal to 5.4%, 3.6%, and 27.9%, respectively. The study showed that copulas adequately describe the multivariate dependences. Those in turn are able to quantify the impact of climate extremes, including their uncertainties.

AB - Climate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions of the crop-related variables given extremes of air temperature and precipitation are estimated. We used potatoes in the Netherlands as a case study. Weather data were obtained from 33 weather stations and ECMWF ERA-interim archive during the period 1980–2017. A joint behavior analysis predicted the yield, the production and the price with the relative mean absolute error equal to 5.4%, 3.6%, and 27.9%, respectively. The study showed that copulas adequately describe the multivariate dependences. Those in turn are able to quantify the impact of climate extremes, including their uncertainties.

KW - ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE

KW - ITC-GOLD

UR - https://ezproxy2.utwente.nl/login?url=https://library.itc.utwente.nl/login/2019/isi/alidoost_eva.pdf

U2 - 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100227

DO - 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100227

M3 - Article

VL - 26

SP - 1

EP - 9

JO - Weather and climate extremes

JF - Weather and climate extremes

SN - 2212-0947

M1 - 100227

ER -