Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application

Fakhereh Alidoost, Zhongbo Su, A. Stein

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
40 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Climate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions of the crop-related variables given extremes of air temperature and precipitation are estimated. We used potatoes in the Netherlands as a case study. Weather data were obtained from 33 weather stations and ECMWF ERA-interim archive during the period 1980–2017. A joint behavior analysis predicted the yield, the production and the price with the relative mean absolute error equal to 5.4%, 3.6%, and 27.9%, respectively. The study showed that copulas adequately describe the multivariate dependences. Those in turn are able to quantify the impact of climate extremes, including their uncertainties.
Original languageEnglish
Article number100227
Pages (from-to)1-9
Number of pages9
JournalWeather and climate extremes
Volume26
Early online date18 Sep 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2019

Keywords

  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
  • ITC-GOLD

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