Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica

Martin Hilljegerdes, P.W.M. Augustijn

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

The Caribbean island of Dominica is at constant risk of being hit by tropical storms during the hurricane season. Therefore, Dominica and areas in similar situations need to raise their resilience to natural hazards. The potential
consequences of climate change intensify this risk. After a hurricane hit, repair of damage to buildings and infrastructure can take several months. As hurricane frequency is increasing and time between hurricanes fluctuates, modeling sequences of hurricane events can help to determine different evacuation strategies. This paper introduces an agent-based model, simulating two hurricane events in one season. The prototype simulates the movement of evacuees over a road network and damage to buildings and infrastructure. Initial results show marked differences between road movements of evacuees during a second evacuation. Although shifts in the average shelter occupation are small (up to 2%) for our case study, this can indicate that adjustments to shelter capacities are necessary.
Original languageEnglish
Pages462-472
Number of pages11
Publication statusPublished - May 2019
Event16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 2019 - Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain
Duration: 19 May 201922 Jun 2019
Conference number: 16
https://iscram2019.webs.upv.es/

Conference

Conference16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 2019
Abbreviated titleISCRAM 2019
CountrySpain
CityValencia
Period19/05/1922/06/19
Internet address

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hurricane
hurricane event
shelter
infrastructure
damage
natural hazard
repair
occupation
road
climate change
effect
modeling

Cite this

Hilljegerdes, M., & Augustijn, P. W. M. (2019). Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica. 462-472. Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 2019, Valencia, Spain.
Hilljegerdes, Martin ; Augustijn, P.W.M. / Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica. Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 2019, Valencia, Spain.11 p.
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Hilljegerdes, M & Augustijn, PWM 2019, 'Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica' Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 2019, Valencia, Spain, 19/05/19 - 22/06/19, pp. 462-472.

Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica. / Hilljegerdes, Martin; Augustijn, P.W.M.

2019. 462-472 Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 2019, Valencia, Spain.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperAcademicpeer-review

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AB - The Caribbean island of Dominica is at constant risk of being hit by tropical storms during the hurricane season. Therefore, Dominica and areas in similar situations need to raise their resilience to natural hazards. The potentialconsequences of climate change intensify this risk. After a hurricane hit, repair of damage to buildings and infrastructure can take several months. As hurricane frequency is increasing and time between hurricanes fluctuates, modeling sequences of hurricane events can help to determine different evacuation strategies. This paper introduces an agent-based model, simulating two hurricane events in one season. The prototype simulates the movement of evacuees over a road network and damage to buildings and infrastructure. Initial results show marked differences between road movements of evacuees during a second evacuation. Although shifts in the average shelter occupation are small (up to 2%) for our case study, this can indicate that adjustments to shelter capacities are necessary.

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Hilljegerdes M, Augustijn PWM. Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica. 2019. Paper presented at 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management 2019, Valencia, Spain.