Explaining the policy impact of the 1991 and the 2000 firework blasts in the Netherlands by the core of five policy change models

This chapter presents an analysis of the aftermaths of two disastrous firework blasts from a policy change perspective. The causes of both disasters were largely identical. Both were extensively investigated and the findings disseminated. After an explosion in 1991, hardly any change in policy occurred, while in comparison the 2000 explosion led to gigantic changes; external security developed as a policy issue and very rapidly became top priority. Viewed from this perspective, our cases can be considered not as similar but as extremes. The analysis is structured by applying five policy change models. The models are the theory of the policy generations (De Vries 1999), the network-instrument model (Bressers and O'Toole 1998), the stream model of the policy process (Kingdon 1995), the advocacy coalition framework (Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith 1999) and the punctuatedequilibrium model (Baumgartner and Jones 1993). The core change mechanisms typical of each of the five models are set out, followed by an assessment of whether these can successfully explain stability or change in respect of our cases. The analysis is closed by reflecting on the consequences of the analysis for modelling policy change.