Exploring seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field using adaptive kernel smoothing and inhomogeneous summary statistics

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Abstract

The discovery of gas in Groningen in 1959 has been a massive boon to the Dutch economy. From the 1990s onwards though, gas production has led to induced seismicity. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive exploratory analysis of the spatio-temporal earthquake catalogue. We develop a non-parametric adaptive kernel smoothing technique to estimate the spatio-temporal hazard map and to interpolate monthly well-based gas production statistics. Second- and higher-order inhomogeneous summary statistics are used to show that the state of the art rate-and-state models for the prediction of seismic hazard fail to capture inter-event interaction in the earthquake catalogue. Based on these findings, we suggest a modified rate-and-state model that also takes into account changes in gas production volumes and uncertainty in the pore pressure field.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherArXiv.org
Pages1-20
Number of pages20
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 19 Aug 2022

Keywords

  • Adaptive bandwidth selection
  • Induced seismicity
  • Inhomogeneous summary statistics
  • Kernel smoothing
  • Pore pressure
  • Spatio-temporal point process

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