Exploring the relationship between life events, mode preferences and mode use of young adults: A 3-year cross-lagged panel analysis in the Netherlands

This paper examines the impact of life events on transport mode preferences and the frequency of mode use of young adults in the Netherlands, using data from three waves (2014, 2015 and 2016) of the Netherlands Mobility Panel. The database used for this paper contains 1,180 young adults (18–39 years) who participated in all three waves. Cross-lagged structural equation panel models were estimated to examine the longitudinal relationship between life events (childbirth, moving home or a new job) and travel behaviour. We investigated the relationship between frequency of mode use and mode preference over time, and the impact of life events on mode preference and frequency of mode use. Young adults showed very stable behaviour over time: frequency of mode use and mode preference are good predictors of frequency of mode use and mode preference in the future. The results show that changes in the frequency of mode use have a stronger effect on changes in mode preferences than vice versa. In addition, young adults subjected to life events are more likely to change travel behaviour. Car use and car preference are found to increase significantly after childbirth. Bicycle use and preference for the bicycle were more likely to increase for young adults who moved home. Changing jobs showed a negative association with bicycle use. These life-changing moments could offer a window of opportunity for policymakers and other parties to create more awareness of alternative, more sustainable, modes of transport.